Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Financial Bankshares (FFIN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.68-2.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.16 → 2.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FFIN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
annual earnings per share | Earnings per share should reach at least $1.77 in 2026. | Improving | EPS falls below $1.77 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FFIN is a financial company with a growth-led, durable-premium profile rather than a turnaround. The multi-year view is intact, but recent company momentum has weakened and credit-quality progress is mixed.
FFIN is valued at a premium to peers, and the supplied evidence describes that premium as durable and justified, with medium confidence. The expectations gap is modestly positive, but the evidence does not spell out specific market assumptions.
Near-term results have been strong overall, with recent earnings in line and reported loan and deposit growth. Management has repeated its priorities, and capital strengthened, while nonperforming assets rose slightly; momentum also weakened, and the evidence flags guidance cuts as a risk to watch.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued loan and deposit growth without further deterioration in credit quality, and on management maintaining guidance. Financial-sector conditions also matter: rate cuts could weigh on the sector, while strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, FFIN’s long-term thesis remains intact, but its premium valuation makes continued execution and stable credit quality central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in First Financial Bankshares's published investment case. The stated target is maintain current profit margin levels. |
| Intact |
| profit margins decline significantly below recent levels |
Net margin: 33.07% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: maintain current profit margin levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Oct 16, 202633.072815 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
annual revenue growth rate | A primary condition in First Financial Bankshares's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 6.88% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 16, 20266.876474 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.16 → $2.13 · observed estimates
$0.75B → $0.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.16 | $747,405,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.15 | $746,284,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.15 | $746,284,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.15 | $746,284,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.15 | $746,284,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.15 | $746,284,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.15 | $746,284,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.15 | $746,284,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.15 | $746,284,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.15 | $746,247,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.15 | $746,247,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.15 | $746,247,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.15 | $746,247,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.15 | $746,247,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.15 | $746,247,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.16 | $746,422,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.16 | $746,422,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.16 | $746,422,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.16 | $746,422,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.16 | $746,422,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.16 | $746,422,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.16 | $746,422,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.16 | $746,422,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.16 | $746,422,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.16 | $746,422,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.16 | $746,422,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.16 | $746,422,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.16 | $745,548,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.16 | $745,064,429 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.16 | $745,064,429 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.14 | $741,993,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.14 | $741,993,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.13 | $741,536,143 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.