First Financial Bankshares (FFIN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.44+0.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FFIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FFIN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-17
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION Attached as an exhibit to this Form 8-K is the earnings release for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 of First Financial Bankshares, Inc.
Why it matters: Slow growth in noninterest income could show problems in fee-based services. This affects overall revenue.
Worry ifQ3 noninterest income growth was below 5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 noninterest income growth exceeds 5%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend increase shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares another dividend increase in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe Board does not increase the dividend in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth could indicate a weakening demand for loans, impacting future earnings. This would challenge management's growth strategy.
Worry ifQ3 loan growth was below 2% annualized.
Less concerning ifQ3 loan growth exceeds 2% annualized.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend could show management's views on future earnings. This affects how shareholders feel.
Watch forDividend announced at or above $0.22 per share.
Also watch forDividend announced below $0.22 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$79 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $252 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,079 loss on $10,000 · 20.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in the net interest margin could mean less profit. This raises worries about the bank's ability to manage interest income well.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin was below 3.90%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest margin remains at or above 3.90%.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio means better cost management. It shows the company runs well.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio drops below 45% in Q3. This shows better cost management.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio stays above 45%. This suggests ongoing cost pressures.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level would indicate strong performance and growth compared to last year.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share exceed $0.50.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share fall below $0.50.
Why it matters: Changes in nonperforming assets show how well credit quality is managed. It also shows how risk is handled.
Worry ifNonperforming assets as a percentage of loans decrease below 0.80% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets as a percentage of loans increase above 0.80% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable deposits are important for funding and financial health. This shows management cares about growth.
Watch forDeposits increase year over year by more than 5%.
Also watch forDeposits decrease year over year by more than 5%.
Why it matters: A miss would indicate ongoing challenges in maintaining earnings growth. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows net income below $71.89 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings report shows net income above $71.89 million.
Why it matters: Higher investment yields can help the bank make more money. It shows better asset management.
Supportive ifQ2 investment yields reported above 4%.
Worry ifInvestment yields are below 3%.
Why it matters: The buyback plan may show management believes in the company's value. It can help share prices.
Supportive ifShare price increases following the announcement of the buyback plan.
Worry ifShare prices fall even after the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may show bigger economic problems for First Financial.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 13% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong earnings growth shows that management cares about smart growth. They also manage risks well.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings exceed $78.08 million, which is a 10% increase from Q3 2025 earnings of $71.89 million.
Worry ifQ3 earnings fall below $78.08 million, indicating weaker growth.
Why it matters: Stable deposits show that customers are staying. This helps the bank's financial health.
Supportive ifDeposits remain above $13 billion at the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifDeposits fall below $12.5 billion at the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows good management of money. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend remains at or above $0.22 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe quarterly dividend is cut below $0.22 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in noninterest income shows a strong mix of services. It shows strength in fees.
Supportive ifNoninterest income exceeds $35.29 million in Q3, a 10% increase from Q3 2025.
Worry ifNoninterest income stays below $35.29 million. This shows weaker performance in fee income.