Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Guaranty Bancshares Inc (FGBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.78+4.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.65 → 0.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FGBI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain consistent quarterly dividends of $0.01 per share | It keeps paying small quarterly dividends. | Intact | dividend payments stop or fall below $0.01 per share | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 supplied transcript quarters. First Guaranty reported 133 consecutive quarterly dividends and declared a third-quarter 2026 common dividend of $0.01 per share. The payment continued, while the amount remained reduced to preserve capital, showing continuity rather than an increase in distributions. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a bank recovery story, not yet a durable compounder. The multi-year view is mixed: management has made progress on problem assets, balance-sheet risk, earnings, and capital, but the thesis remains under watch.
The valuation evidence is mixed: FGBI is described as cheap versus peers, while its valuation score rose and its measured premium versus peers is positive. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain restrained; priced-in fragility is low, and the evidence does not point to concentrated fragility.
Near term, the latest reported quarter showed net income compared with a loss a year earlier, and an October earnings beat was reported. Over the multi-year view, progress in reducing nonaccrual loans and strengthening capital supports recovery, but overall recent performance remains weak and management execution is volatile. A guidance cut or falling rates would add pressure, while the snapshot gives only a quiet near-term miss warning.
The thesis depends on continued improvement in asset quality and capital, and on meeting Consent Order requirements; the evidence does not show that the stated asset-quality goal or all order requirements have been met. Near term, a guidance cut or Fed rate cuts are unfavorable factors, while stronger results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, FGBI presents a mixed recovery thesis: meaningful balance-sheet and earnings progress is offset by weak relative performance, volatile execution, and high risk. The key question is whether management can sustain that progress and complete its risk-reduction work. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net income improves to at least $2.74 million in 2026-Q1 | The bank improved net income to $2.74 million in 2026-Q1. | Intact | net income falls below $2.45 million in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Net income: $3.431M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.74 million USD net income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 20263,431,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Cash from operating activities rises to at least $50.59 million in 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations rose to $50.59 million in 2026-Q1. | Recovered | cash flow falls below -$24.78 million in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations: $-709,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=50.59 million USD cash from operations. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 2026-709,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.65 → $0.65 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.65 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.65 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.65 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.65 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.65 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.65 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.65 | $86,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.