First Guaranty Bancshares Inc (FGBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.29+7.32%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FGBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -53.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FGBI — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-27
Other Events On October 15, 2026 the Board of Directors of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. ("First Guaranty") announced that on December 1, 2026, holders of record as of November 15, 2026 (the "Depository Shares Record Date") of its depositary shares (the "Depositary Shares"), each representing a 1/40th interest in the Corporation's 6.75% Series A Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock (the "Series A Preferred Stock"), will receive a quarterly distribution in the amount of $0.421…
Why it matters: The loan is one of the bank’s largest problem assets. A completed sale would reduce that risk.
Supportive ifThe bank completes the $11.4 million loan sale in Q4 2026 and reports no added loss above its reserve.
Worry ifThe sale has not closed by December 31, 2026, or the bank reports a new loss on the loan.
Why it matters: Meeting the stated capital rule is a direct test of progress under the new order. A miss would show more work remains.
Watch forA filing reports the Tier 1 Leverage Ratio at or above 9.0% and confirms the bank meets the Consent Order rule.
Also watch forA filing reports the Tier 1 Leverage Ratio below 9.0%, or says the bank remains out of compliance.
Why it matters: Closing the sale would remove First Guaranty’s largest problem property. A lower sale price could add a loss.
Supportive ifThe sale closes in Q4 2026, with no added loss beyond the $0.7 million write-down already booked.
Worry ifThe sale does not close by December 31, 2026, or the final price causes a further write-down.
Why it matters: The bank has kept its common dividend at $0.01 per share. Another declaration would continue that pattern while the bank works to meet its order.
Watch forThe board declares a common dividend of at least $0.01 per share for the next quarter.
Also watch forThe board declares no common dividend, or cuts the payment below $0.01 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$155 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $498 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,933 loss on $10,000 · 29.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Net interest margin fell to 2.08% in Q3 from 2.34% a year earlier. A further drop would add pressure to earnings.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls below 2.08%.
Less concerning ifQ4 net interest margin is 2.08% or higher.