First Guaranty Bancshares Inc (FGBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.54+1.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FGBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -77.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -48.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FGBI — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-07
Other Events. First Guaranty Bank (the “Bank”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (“First Guaranty”), entered into a Stipulation to the Issuance of a Consent Order with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (the “FDIC”) and the Louisiana Office of Financial Institutions (the “OFI”), consenting to the issuance of a Consent Order by the FDIC and the OFI (the “Consent Order”). The Consent Order became effective on August 7, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). The Bank con…
Why it matters: More net income shows better financial health. It also means success in operations.
Supportive ifQ2 net income exceeds $2.7 million, showing continued growth.
Worry ifQ2 net income falls below $2.7 million, indicating a setback.
Why it matters: Finishing this sale shows management's plan to lower balance sheet risk and focus on core markets.
Supportive ifThe sale of Texas operations is done and will be reported in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe sale does not close by July 31, 2026, or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: This earnings report will show how the company is doing financially. It will also show management's progress on important goals.
Watch forEarnings report shows improved metrics compared to Q2 2026.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows a decline in key financial numbers compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below the median, it could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains above the median of 15% over the next quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth drops below the median of 15% in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$110 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $573 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,268 loss on $10,000 · 52.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More cash from operations helps the business grow and stay stable. It shows better finances.
Supportive ifCash from operations in Q2 2026 is over $50.59 million. This shows strong recovery.
Worry ifCash from operations in Q2 2026 is below $50.59 million. This shows a decline.
Why it matters: A drop in nonaccrual loans shows better asset quality. It also means less classified assets.
Supportive ifNonaccrual loans decrease below $40.6 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNonaccrual loans increase above $40.6 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in the allowance signal asset quality. A decrease shows improvement, while an increase may indicate risk.
Watch forAllowance for credit losses drops below 1.9% of total loans.
Also watch forAllowance for credit losses rises above 2.0% of total loans.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend at $0.01 per share shows a commitment to steady capital use. This shows management wants to keep dividends.
Watch forDividend payment remains at $0.01 per share for the next quarter.
Also watch forDividend payment is cut or stopped.
Why it matters: Consistent dividends show that a company is stable. They also show care for shareholders.
Watch forThe company pays a dividend of $0.01 per share on June 30, 2026.
Also watch forThe company suspends or reduces the dividend payment in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable or lower noninterest expenses show good cost control. This helps net income grow.
Supportive ifNoninterest expense stays below $17 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNoninterest expense goes above $18 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A continued decline in loans would show First Guaranty is reducing balance sheet risk as planned.
Worry ifTotal loans decrease more than 5% from $1.8 billion in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal loans stabilize or grow compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping positive net income shows First Guaranty is making more money.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 is above $3 million.
Worry ifNet income falls below $2 million.
Why it matters: If the allowance goes up, it means asset quality is getting worse.
Worry ifAllowance for credit losses exceeds 2% of total loans in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAllowance for credit losses remains at or below 1.94% of total loans.
Why it matters: A drop in nonperforming assets means First Guaranty is improving its assets.
Supportive ifNonperforming assets are less than $80 million.
Worry ifNonperforming assets rise or stay above $83.5 million.