Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Horizon (FHN)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.12-2.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.31 → 2.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FHN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share maintained at $0.15 | The bank maintains a stable dividend of $0.15 per share. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.15 per share in FY26 | Dividend per share: $0.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.15 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.17 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FHN is a bank with a quality-and-execution thesis, rather than a clear turnaround story. The thesis is intact, but recent evidence is mixed: performance remains strong while management delivery on loan growth and credit quality is partial.
Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, with the overall priced-in tag marked justified and low fragility. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially forgiving; the evidence does not show a large gap between expectations and fundamentals.
Near term, recent results were in line, expenses declined, and client deposits grew, but average loan balances fell from the prior quarter and credit measures were mixed. The risk of a near-term miss is assessed as low, though a prior deep miss and recent peer misses remain cautions; the sharp decline in company quality, filed litigation, and CEO transition also warrant attention over the coming quarters.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether loan growth resumes while deposit relationships expand, expense discipline continues, and credit indicators remain sound. A guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts would be unfavorable; continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, FHN’s thesis is intact but less clear than its strong recent performance alone suggests. Execution on loans, costs, and credit, alongside the effects of litigation and the CEO transition, are key. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in First Horizon's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.87 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $1.50 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.20 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1.87 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 15, 2026-0.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income increases from $262 million | Net income rose to $262 million in Q1 2026, showing operational strength. | Intact | net income falls below $230 million next 4 quarters | Net income: $-83M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $262 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 15, 2026-83,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
P/E ratio near peer median ~12 | Its valuation is reasonable with a P/E near peers and moderate risk. | Intact | P/E falls below 10 or rises above 16 | P/E (TTM): 11.20x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202611.1981 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.31 → $2.32 · observed estimates
$3.70B → $3.71B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.31 | $3,696,261,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.31 | $3,696,261,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.30 | $3,696,452,613 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.31 | $3,696,261,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.31 | $3,696,261,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.31 | $3,696,261,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.31 | $3,696,261,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.30 | $3,696,452,613 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.30 | $3,696,452,613 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.31 | $3,696,261,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.31 | $3,696,261,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.31 | $3,696,261,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.31 | $3,696,261,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.31 | $3,696,261,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.30 | $3,697,048,401 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.31 | $3,697,086,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.31 | $3,697,086,520 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.30 | $3,697,048,401 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.30 | $3,697,048,401 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.30 | $3,697,048,401 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.30 | $3,697,048,401 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.30 | $3,697,048,401 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.30 | $3,697,048,401 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.30 | $3,697,048,401 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.30 | $3,697,048,401 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.30 | $3,697,048,401 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.30 | $3,697,048,401 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.30 | $3,697,510,568 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.30 | $3,702,326,093 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.30 | $3,702,973,152 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.30 | $3,702,973,152 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.30 | $3,702,973,152 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.30 | $3,702,973,152 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.30 | $3,702,973,152 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.30 | $3,702,973,152 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.30 | $3,702,973,152 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.30 | $3,702,973,152 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.30 | $3,702,973,152 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.30 | $3,702,973,152 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.30 | $3,700,174,643 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.30 | $3,700,174,643 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.30 | $3,704,077,740 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.31 | $3,709,980,795 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.31 | $3,709,980,795 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.31 | $3,709,980,795 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.31 | $3,710,001,206 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.31 | $3,710,001,206 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.31 | $3,710,001,206 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.31 | $3,710,521,348 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.31 | $3,710,521,348 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.31 | $3,708,962,460 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.31 | $3,706,522,473 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.31 | $3,706,522,473 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.31 | $3,706,522,473 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.31 | $3,706,522,473 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.31 | $3,708,681,615 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.31 | $3,708,681,615 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.31 | $3,708,681,615 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.31 | $3,709,942,726 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.31 | $3,709,942,726 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.31 | $3,709,448,282 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.31 | $3,709,448,282 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.31 | $3,709,448,282 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.31 | $3,709,448,282 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.31 | $3,709,459,393 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.32 | $3,703,351,048 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.32 | $3,703,351,048 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.32 | $3,704,118,292 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.32 | $3,704,118,292 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.32 | $3,705,146,070 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.32 | $3,705,146,070 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.32 | $3,705,146,070 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.32 | $3,705,146,070 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.32 | $3,705,146,070 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.32 | $3,705,146,070 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.32 | $3,705,146,070 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.32 | $3,705,146,070 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.32 | $3,705,146,070 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.32 | $3,705,146,070 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.32 | $3,705,146,070 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.32 | $3,705,146,070 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.32 | $3,705,143,870 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.32 | $3,705,143,870 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.32 | $3,705,153,037 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.32 | $3,705,153,037 | 15 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.