First Horizon (FHN)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.94-0.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FHN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 220 industry peers
FHN — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-15
Regulation FD Disclosure. Furnished as Exhibit 99.2 is a copy of the Investor Slide Presentation for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, released today. Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 are furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and Item 7.01, “Regulation FD Disclosure,” respectively. The exhibits speak as of the date thereof, and FHN does not assume any obligation to update in the future the information therein. Use of Non-GAAP Measures and Regulatory Measures th…
Why it matters: A drop in deposits may show weaker customer trust. This could affect liquidity.
Worry ifAverage deposits were less than $65 billion.
Less concerning ifAverage deposits were more than $65 billion.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows management's plans are working. This helps future earnings.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 is over $260 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 is below $260 million. This suggests possible performance issues.
Why it matters: Loan growth is crucial for revenue; exceeding this level shows strong demand.
Supportive ifAverage loans exceed $65 billion in Q3.
Worry ifAverage loans fall below $65 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Continued growth in net income is key for achieving management's EPS target of $1.87 for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 net income for common shareholders goes up more than 10% from last year.
Worry ifQ3 net income available to common shareholders grows less than 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $259 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,651 loss on $10,000 · 16.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may raise worries about capital and financial health.
Worry ifCET1 ratio reported below 10.5%.
Less concerning ifCET1 ratio reported above 10.7%.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may show lower asset quality and higher credit risk.
Worry ifNet charge-offs reported above $33 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain at or below $33 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The results of lawsuits could affect financial health and how investors feel.
Worry ifLawsuits finish with no big money impacts.
Less concerning ifLawsuits lead to big financial penalties or settlements.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may show bigger money problems for First Horizon.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 12%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median of 12%.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may mean higher credit risk and lower future earnings.
Worry ifNonperforming loans were over $610 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans were below $600 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Stable net interest income shows strong management of interest rates. It also shows good loan profits.
Supportive ifNet interest income reported above $670 million in Q2.
Worry ifNet interest income reported below $650 million in Q2.
Why it matters: The result of the lawsuit could change the company's finances and how investors feel.
Worry ifUpdates show the lawsuit ended well for First Horizon.
Less concerning ifUpdates show the lawsuit ended poorly for First Horizon.
Why it matters: A decline may mean profit is under pressure because deposit costs are rising.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.49%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays steady or goes above 3.49%.
Why it matters: Confirming the EPS target of $1.87 shows the company's growth potential. It helps investors gauge future earnings strength.
Supportive ifManagement confirms that EPS is on track to reach $1.87 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement revises EPS guidance down from $1.87 for 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in noninterest income helps total revenue. It shows the strength of diverse services.
Supportive ifNoninterest income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifNoninterest income goes down from last year.
Why it matters: Increasing net income shows the company's ability to grow profits. It is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows net income growth compared to Q1.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a decline in net income compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Earnings per share below this amount may show problems with growth.
Worry ifEPS reported below $0.54 for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifEPS exceeds $0.54 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong money management. It also shows good financial health.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.17 or increases in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend per share drops below $0.17 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in net income could signal weakening performance, impacting future growth plans.
Worry ifNet income for common shareholders was below $260 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income for common shareholders was over $260 million in Q3 2026.