Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (FIBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.01-2.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.85 → 2.95 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FIBK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend maintained at $0.47 per share | It keeps dividend steady at $0.47 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut below $0.47 per share | Dividend per share: $0.47 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.47 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 20260.47 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional banking business with a multi-year view tied to relationship growth, better operating efficiency, and interest income. The thesis is currently intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though management execution has been uneven and confidence in the evidence is medium.
The valuation evidence is mixed: FIBK is tagged as stretched, while the peer comparison describes it as cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is 0.12, but the snapshot does not explain its scale; fragility is low, with no fragility gates triggered.
In the near term, recent operating measures are constructive: third-quarter net interest income and net interest margin rose from the prior quarter, while expenses edged lower. However, the latest quarter was an earnings miss, and the company has a run of consecutive misses, so guidance and execution remain important near-term risks. Over the multi-year view, relationship growth and efficiency are stated priorities, but broader progress on relationship growth is not established by the evidence.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued execution on margins, interest income, and operating efficiency would support the thesis. The interest-rate backdrop also matters: rate cuts could weigh on financial firms, while stronger earnings and guidance from sector peers could sustain sector momentum. Continued repurchases are another factor, but they have reduced the capital ratio and the evidence rates progress on this priority as mixed.
The 1-3 year thesis remains intact, supported by recent operating improvement, but the earnings-miss pattern, stretched expectations, and sensitivity to rates leave meaningful execution risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The bank repurchases shares actively, buying $84 million in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| Repurchases fall below $50 million in Q1 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Profit margin near 23% in FY 2026 | Profit margins remain stable near 23%. | Intact | Profit margin falls below 21% in FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $835 million in FY 2026 | First Interstate BancSystem grows revenue to about $835 million in 2026. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $785 million in FY 2026 | Revenue: $272.5M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$835 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 2026272,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.00 → $2.95 · observed estimates
$1.05B → $1.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.00 | $1,046,077,322 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.93 | $1,048,111,480 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.96 | $1,037,743,988 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.96 | $1,037,743,988 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.96 | $1,037,743,988 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.85 | $1,022,224,540 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.85 | $1,019,694,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.85 | $1,022,224,540 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.85 | $1,019,694,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.85 | $1,022,224,540 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.85 | $1,022,224,540 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.85 | $1,022,224,540 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.85 | $1,022,224,540 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.85 | $1,022,224,540 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.85 | $1,019,694,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.85 | $1,022,224,540 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.85 | $1,022,224,540 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.85 | $1,019,694,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.85 | $1,019,694,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,210 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.85 | $1,019,694,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.85 | $1,019,694,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.85 | $1,019,694,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.85 | $1,019,694,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.85 | $1,019,694,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.85 | $1,019,694,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.85 | $1,019,694,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.85 | $1,012,241,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.85 | $1,012,191,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.85 | $1,011,993,211 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.85 | $1,011,632,752 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.85 | $1,011,632,752 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.85 | $1,011,632,752 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.85 | $1,011,632,752 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.85 | $1,011,632,752 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.85 | $1,011,632,752 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.85 | $1,011,632,752 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.85 | $1,011,704,181 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.85 | $1,011,761,324 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.85 | $1,011,761,324 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.85 | $1,011,761,324 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.85 | $1,011,761,324 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.86 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.86 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.86 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.85 | $1,011,431,823 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.89 | $1,013,803,251 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.89 | $1,013,803,251 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.89 | $1,013,803,251 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.89 | $1,013,803,251 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.90 | $1,015,559,906 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.95 | $1,018,623,764 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.95 | $1,018,623,764 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.95 | $1,018,623,764 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.95 | $1,018,738,049 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.95 | $1,018,738,049 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.95 | $1,018,738,049 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.95 | $1,018,738,049 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.