First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (FIBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.10+3.93%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FIBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FIBK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 22, 2026 , First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. Neither the information included or incorporated by reference under this Item 2.02, nor the press release furnished herewith, shall be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Se…
Why it matters: Deposits fell 0.2% in Q3, even after the branch sales. Stable or higher deposits would show stronger funding.
Supportive ifQ4 total deposits are at least $21,388.5 million. Noninterest-bearing deposits are at or above Q3 levels.
Worry ifQ4 total deposits fall below $21,388.5 million, or deposits that earn no interest fall from Q3 levels.
Why it matters: Management named a more efficient operating model as a priority. Q3 expenses fell from Q2, but the drop was small.
Supportive ifQ4 noninterest expense is below $157.1 million. This extends the decline from Q2's $158.9 million.
Worry ifQ4 expenses that do not include interest rise above $158.9 million.
Why it matters: The margin rose to 3.53% in Q3, helped by lower time-deposit costs. Another increase would support the earnings trend.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is above 3.53%, and net interest income is above Q3's $206.2 million.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls below 3.45%, or net interest income falls below Q3's $206.2 million.
Why it matters: Loan payoffs and paydowns cut loans by $296 million in Q3. Higher balances would support future interest income.
Supportive ifQ4 loans held for investment rise from Q3. Reported loan growth matches management's focus on account growth.
Worry ifQ4 loans held for investment fall again from Q3, with payoffs and paydowns still reducing balances.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $236 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,686 loss on $10,000 · 16.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Charge-offs rose from 0.06% in Q1 to 0.28% in Q3. A further rise would show more loan losses.
Worry ifQ4 net charge-offs are above 0.28% of average loans, or criticized loans rise above Q3's $939.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 net charge-offs fall below 0.28% and criticized loans fall below $939.5 million.