First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (FIBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.85+0.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FIBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -7.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FIBK — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-07-09
Executive Vice President and General Counsel/Corporate Secretary — Mr. Kirk D. Jensen: The employment of Mr. Kirk D. Jensen was terminated involuntarily and without cause.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets can lead to worse loan quality. This may cause losses.
Worry ifNon-performing assets rise above $162.5 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets drop or stay below $162.5 million.
Why it matters: Recent changes in leaders may affect how the company does. Stability matters.
Watch forGood operational metrics after the CEO change.
Also watch forBad operational metrics after the CEO change.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in net interest income shows ongoing pressure on profits from lower loan yields.
Worry ifQ2 net interest income down year over year worse than 2%.
Less concerning ifNet interest income stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: A strong earnings report can make investors feel good. It shows good management and strong operations.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings are much higher than what analysts expected.
Worry ifQ3 earnings fall short of analyst expectations.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $246 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,686 loss on $10,000 · 16.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop in deposits might mean customers are unhappy. It could also show competition.
Worry ifTotal deposits decrease more than 3% compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits remain stable or increase in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher noninterest income may show better operations. It can also mean more revenue sources.
Supportive ifNoninterest income was over $60 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNoninterest income was below $60 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Good redeployment can boost growth in key markets. This affects long-term profits.
Watch forManagement will share plans for growth or investments from money used after branch sales.
Also watch forNo news on capital redeployment or growth plans after branch sales.
Why it matters: Stable operational income shows the company can manage costs well. A decline could signal issues.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up each year. It stays above $77.5M.
Worry ifOperating income drops below $66.4M year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend declared at $0.47 per share on August 14, 2026.
Worry ifDividend cut or not declared on August 14, 2026.
Why it matters: A steady or higher net interest margin shows good control of interest income and costs.
Supportive ifNet interest margin reported above 3.45% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.45% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may indicate broader sector challenges. This could impact stock performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth stays above the median of 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth drops below the median of 12% year over year.
Why it matters: More charge-offs could mean worse credit quality. This might hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed 0.06% of average loans outstanding in Q2.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain at or below 0.06% of average loans outstanding.
Why it matters: Stable or growing deposits show more customer trust and better financial health.
Supportive ifTotal deposits were above $21.4 billion for Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal deposits were below $21.4 billion for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in noninterest income may show problems in fee services and total revenue.
Worry ifNoninterest income was below $40 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifNoninterest income stayed above $40 million in Q2.
Why it matters: News about share buybacks can show management's confidence. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThere is news of more share buybacks or a bigger buyback plan.
Worry ifNo updates or reduction in share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Progress on the share buyback program may show management's trust in the company.
Supportive ifCompletion of at least $150 million in share repurchases by the next earnings call.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks reported by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: The sale of branches can affect total deposits. A significant drop may indicate customer loss.
Worry ifTotal deposits decrease more than $441.7 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits decrease less than $441.7 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show good use of capital. It also shows confidence.
Supportive ifThe board raises the share buyback limit to over $450 million.
Worry ifThe share buyback limit stays at $450 million.
Why it matters: Higher charge-offs mean worse credit quality. This could hurt earnings and investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 net charge-offs are above $10 million. This shows rising credit problems.
Less concerning ifQ3 net charge-offs are below $10 million. This shows stable credit quality.
Why it matters: Strong growth in noninterest income shows better performance. It also shows more diversity.
Supportive ifQ3 noninterest income grows over 50% year over year. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 noninterest income growth is below 20% year over year. This suggests weakness.
Why it matters: This sale will change the capital structure and growth plans. It will affect future earnings.
Watch forThe sale of eleven branches in Nebraska is closing. This helps to move capital.
Also watch forThe sale is delayed or does not close. This limits chances for capital redeployment.
Why it matters: Any change in the dividend could show shifts in spending priorities or financial health.
Watch forThe company maintains the dividend at $0.47 per share for Q3.
Also watch forThe company cuts or stops the dividend. This shows financial strain.