Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Figma Inc (FIG)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.44-16.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.36 → 0.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FIG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Leadership confidence remains stable | A supporting condition in Figma Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No significant insider selling or leadership departures. | Under Pressure | Major insider selling or key leadership departures increase | CEO sold $4.36M; CAO sold $15.9K; Director resigned CEO sold $4.36M shares; CAO sold $15.9K; Director Mike Krieger resigned. Recent earnings beats do not offset insider selling. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FIG is a high-growth software business with a durable-premium valuation, but it is still loss-making under the evidence snapshot’s value measure. The long-term thesis is intact but cautious: revenue guidance has risen, while operating income delivery and recent financial performance remain uneven.
FIG trades at a 2.32 times premium to peers, and the valuation model has low confidence. The evidence tags the expectations gap as unjustified, though valuation is the main source of fragility rather than a broader mix of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.
Near term, revenue growth and higher full-year guidance support the business, while quarterly non-GAAP operating income fell from the first quarter to the second and recent earnings surprises have been erratic. Seat expansion and AI adoption remain key growth drivers, but performance below the industry cohort and a recent shift from mixed to cautious temper the picture.
The multi-year thesis depends on FIG sustaining seat expansion and AI adoption while delivering toward its 2026 operating income goal. Near term, a reversal of recently raised guidance would hurt management credibility; rate cuts or steadier results from major software peers could provide a more supportive sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FIG has a strong revenue-growth story but faces high risk, uneven profit delivery, and expensive expectations. The thesis hinges on continued customer expansion and credible execution against guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Non-GAAP operating income of $125M to $135M in 2026 |
| It aims for $125 million to $135 million in operating income. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $100 million in 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “That momentum, alongside improvements in AI cost efficiency, gives us confidence to raise our full-year revenue and non-GAAP operating income outlook while continuing to invest in our AI capabilities.”” “2 • Non-GAAP operating income between $125.0 million and $135.0 million, representing a non-GAAP operating margin of 9% at the midpoint of the range.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
2026 revenue reaches about $1.425 billion | Figma raised its 2026 revenue guidance to about $1.425 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.37 billion in 2026 | Revenue: $391.415M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.425 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026391,415,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain seat expansion and AI adoption | A supporting condition in Figma Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain seat growth and AI adoption. | Improving | Seat growth and AI adoption stall or decline | Qualitative: FY26 rev guide raised to $1.5B-$1.5B; AI model adoption confirmed Figma raised FY26 revenue guidance to $1.497B-$1.499B and reported an earnings beat, while news confirms AI credit and in-house model adoption. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “That momentum, alongside improvements in AI cost efficiency, gives us confidence to raise our full-year revenue and non-GAAP operating income outlook while continuing to invest in our AI capabilities.”” “Figma raises full year revenue guidance, reflecting sustained seat expansion and AI adoption.” Revenue was $391.415 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.34 → $0.37 · observed estimates
$1.76B → $1.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.34 | $1,761,060,057 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.33 | $1,759,249,530 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.34 | $1,761,060,057 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.34 | $1,761,060,057 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.33 | $1,759,246,740 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.34 | $1,761,060,057 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.33 | $1,759,246,740 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.33 | $1,759,246,740 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.34 | $1,761,060,057 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.33 | $1,759,246,740 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.33 | $1,759,246,740 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.33 | $1,759,246,740 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.33 | $1,759,246,740 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.33 | $1,759,246,740 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.36 | $1,819,536,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.34 | $1,791,732,800 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.34 | $1,791,732,800 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.34 | $1,791,732,800 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.36 | $1,818,699,520 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.36 | $1,818,699,520 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.36 | $1,819,536,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.36 | $1,819,536,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.36 | $1,819,536,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.36 | $1,819,536,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.36 | $1,819,536,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.36 | $1,819,536,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.36 | $1,819,536,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.36 | $1,818,943,191 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.36 | $1,818,597,249 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.36 | $1,822,715,316 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.36 | $1,822,715,316 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.36 | $1,822,715,316 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.36 | $1,822,715,316 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.36 | $1,822,713,938 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.36 | $1,822,713,938 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.36 | $1,822,713,938 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.36 | $1,822,713,938 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.36 | $1,822,713,938 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.36 | $1,822,711,223 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.36 | $1,822,711,223 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.36 | $1,822,711,223 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.36 | $1,822,711,223 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.36 | $1,822,711,223 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.36 | $1,822,711,223 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.36 | $1,822,711,081 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.36 | $1,822,711,081 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.36 | $1,822,711,081 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.36 | $1,822,711,081 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.36 | $1,822,717,417 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.36 | $1,822,717,417 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.36 | $1,822,717,417 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.36 | $1,822,717,417 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.36 | $1,822,717,417 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.36 | $1,822,717,417 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.37 | $1,829,368,562 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.37 | $1,829,368,562 | 10 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.