Figma Inc (FIG)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.12-4.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FIG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 83.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 30.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FIG — officer change
Dated 2026-04-15
Director — Mike Krieger: Mike Krieger resigned from the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: This guidance indicates continued revenue growth momentum. It shows how well Figma is expanding its customer base.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance is confirmed at $373 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance falls below $373 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Figma can control costs while growing. It shows good financial health.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating income reported within the range of $125M to $135M.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating income is less than $125M.
Why it matters: A drop in this rate could signal customer dissatisfaction or reduced expansion. It reflects how well Figma retains and grows its customer base.
Worry ifNet Dollar Retention Rate remains at or above 136%.
Less concerning ifNet Dollar Retention Rate drops below 130%.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would show strong growth and management confidence. It could boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifManagement expects revenue for 2026 to be over $1.428 billion.
Worry ifRevenue guidance stays the same or drops from $1.422 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$359 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $791 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,631 loss on $10,000 · 76.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in AI shows Figma is competitive and innovative.
Supportive ifAI product use is rising. Over 60% of high-value customers use Figma Make weekly.
Worry ifAI product use is flat or falling. This suggests less interest in new features.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the sector. This could impact Figma's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median rate.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median rate.
Why it matters: Earnings reports provide key insights into financial health and growth trends. They can influence stock performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report reveals revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Sustaining seat expansion and AI adoption is key for future growth. It reflects market demand.
Watch forManagement reports an increase in active users or AI tool usage.
Also watch forActive user growth or AI adoption rates decline.
Why it matters: Growth in high-value customers shows strong market demand. It also means successful upselling.
Supportive ifPaid customers with over $100,000 in ARR grow by more than 48% year-over-year.
Worry ifGrowth in paid customers with over $100,000 in ARR falls below 48% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A lower margin could signal cash flow issues as Figma invests in growth.
Worry ifOperating cash flow margin prints below 16% in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow margin stays at or above 16% in Q3.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may mean less demand or more competition.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth lands below 36% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 36% year-over-year.
Why it matters: High adoption rates show Figma's AI features are valuable. This can lead to increased revenue from AI monetization.
Supportive ifOver 80% of paid customers with more than $10,000 in ARR use AI credits weekly.
Worry ifLess than 70% of paid customers with more than $10,000 in ARR use AI credits weekly.