Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
FTAI Infrastructure, Inc. (FIP)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.75+3.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FIP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA up to $109 million by end of 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA target is up to $109 million in 2026. | Improving | adjusted EBITDA falls below $80 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Business Highlights • Reported $76.1 million of Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2026.” “• Reported $70.6 million of Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making business with a watch-stage long-term thesis, rather than an established durable compounder. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA have risen, but recent financial performance is weak and company momentum has deteriorated.
The valuation evidence is mixed: FIP is described as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a 34% premium to peers. The expectations gap is strongly negative, but model confidence is low, so the valuation picture is uncertain. The priced-in evidence labels expectations as justified and fragility as low, which does not remove the business risks.
Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated after consecutive misses, and an August miss adds to the concern. Over the multi-year view, revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth support progress toward management’s stated goals, but recent performance remains weak and momentum has fallen. An acquisition was announced in October, but the evidence does not show its effect on results.
The thesis hinges on whether management can sustain revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth and avoid another guidance cut. An earnings miss or lower guidance would deepen execution concerns. Industrial-sector strength could provide a favorable backdrop if bellwethers keep beating and raising guidance, while weaker results from those companies could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FIP’s long-term thesis depends on turning reported growth into more reliable execution amid elevated earnings risk. Evidence is mixed, and confidence in the valuation assessment is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Execution of share buyback program | The company announced a share buyback, showing some capital return focus. | Improving | no share buyback activity or cancellation over next 4 quarters | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue up to $186 million by end of 2026 | FTAI Infrastructure aims to grow revenue to $186 million by end of 2026. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $140 million in FY26 | Revenue: $186.768M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: up to $186 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026186,768,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.94 → $-0.99 · observed estimates
$0.77B → $0.89B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.94 | $767,834,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.18 | $767,834,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.18 | $767,834,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.94 | $767,834,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.94 | $767,834,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.94 | $769,990,875 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.94 | $769,990,875 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.18 | $769,982,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.94 | $769,990,875 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.18 | $769,982,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.18 | $769,982,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.94 | $769,990,875 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.18 | $769,982,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.18 | $769,982,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.78 | $768,099,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.18 | $777,482,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.18 | $777,482,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.18 | $777,482,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.78 | $768,099,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.26 | $781,922,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.26 | $781,922,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.78 | $768,099,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.78 | $768,099,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.78 | $768,099,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.78 | $768,099,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.78 | $768,099,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.78 | $768,099,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.78 | $781,914,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.99 | $804,423,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.07 | $830,923,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.07 | $830,923,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.07 | $830,923,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.07 | $830,923,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.07 | $830,923,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.07 | $830,923,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.07 | $830,923,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.07 | $830,923,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.01 | $860,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.99 | $890,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.99 | $890,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.99 | $890,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.99 | $890,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.99 | $890,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.99 | $890,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.99 | $890,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.99 | $890,400,850 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.