FTAI Infrastructure, Inc. (FIP)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.41+1.19%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FIP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -62.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 76.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
FIP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
disclosure. This Current Report, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless expressly set forth as being incorporated by reference into suc…
Why it matters: Regulatory approvals are needed for the sale to close. Delays may affect financial plans.
Worry ifConfirmation that approvals have been received on time.
Less concerning ifNews of delays or issues in getting the needed approvals.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss means better financial performance. It also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss attributable to common stockholders for Q3 2026 is less than $150 million.
Worry ifNet loss for common stockholders in Q3 2026 is over $200 million.
Why it matters: Cutting debt will lower interest costs. This will help cash flow and financial health.
Supportive ifTotal debt drops a lot after the Long Ridge sale.
Worry ifTotal debt stays the same or goes up after the sale.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it could help FTAI Infrastructure improve its performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth rises above 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$248 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $737 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,700 loss on $10,000 · 47.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy can show management's confidence in cash flow and stability. This affects how investors feel.
Watch forThe Board declares an increase in the quarterly cash dividend above $0.03 per share.
Also watch forThe Board suspends or cuts the quarterly cash dividend.
Why it matters: Reaching the $109 million adjusted EBITDA goal is key for growth.
Supportive ifManagement shared updates that show they are getting closer to the $109 million goal.
Worry ifNo updates or a downgrade to the adjusted EBITDA target.
Why it matters: Hitting the EBITDA target of $109 million is important for financial health. It shows how well the company runs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA should be $100 million or more in the next earnings report.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $80 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong performance and growth. It is important for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenues reported at or above $186 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenues are below $170 million.
Why it matters: Closing this sale will reduce debt by $1.16 billion and improve cash flow. This is crucial for FIP's financial health.
Supportive ifThe sale of Long Ridge closes by the end of Q3 2026 with all regulatory approvals.
Worry ifThe sale is delayed past Q3 2026. It may not get the needed approvals.
Why it matters: This shows strong operations. It also shows progress toward the $109 million EBITDA target.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was over $80 million. This is up from Q2's $76.1 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was under $70 million. This shows a drop in operations.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares the dividend of $0.03 per share as planned.
Worry ifThe Board cancels or reduces the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Progress on the buyback program shows management's confidence. It can also boost shareholder value.
Watch forManagement announces the start of the share buyback program with details.
Also watch forNo updates or a cancellation of the share buyback program is announced.