FTAI Infrastructure, Inc. (FIP)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.75+3.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FIP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -68.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 29.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 98.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
FIP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
disclosure. This Current Report, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless expressly set forth as being incorporated by reference into suc…
Why it matters: The Q2 update said this expansion was progressing toward an early 2027 start. A timely start would mark delivery on a named project.
Supportive ifFTAI reports that Repauno phase two began operations by the end of Q1 2027.
Worry ifFTAI reports a delay beyond Q1 2027 or says the project is no longer on plan.
Why it matters: Management listed a share buyback, but the inputs give no later data on shares bought or cash spent. A report can show if it began.
Watch forA company filing says share purchases are complete and reports how many shares were bought.
Also watch forThe next company report shows no shares bought, or the buyback agreement has ended.
Why it matters: The deal adds assets that management says can make about $50 million in annual EBITDA. Required approvals are due in Q4 2026.
Supportive ifRegulators approve the deal. Jefferson reports that the Port Arthur Terminal and 50% DRU stake have closed.
Worry ifRegulators deny approval, the deal ends, or closing moves past Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was $76.1 million. The next report can show whether growth continues toward management's stated $109 million goal.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA rises from $76.1 million in Q2. Management keeps the $109 million annual goal.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is below $76.1 million. Management cuts or drops the $109 million goal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$248 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $737 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,367 loss on $10,000 · 63.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.