Five Below (FIVE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$252.20+5.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FIVE
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $252 FIVE trades at 31× p/e — 2.1× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $239 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $215–$420. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $275.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $447.03 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $458.54 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $89.75 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$215.00 – $420.00 (median $275.50) · 30 analysts · as of 2026-09-03
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 602% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 14.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.86/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $149.06 |
| 10.5 |
| 13.05 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $144.34 | 15.8 | 9.11 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $142.58 | 14.7 | 9.69 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $68.25 | 0.8 | 83.14 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $208.86 | 26.0 | 8.02 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $62.83 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $217.13 | 27.1 | 8.02 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $127.56 | 15.1 | 8.44 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $219.52 | 15.8 | 13.85 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $185.39 | 14.7 | 12.60 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $113.21 | 0.8 | 137.90 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $328.25 | 26.0 | 12.60 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $341.25 | 27.1 | 12.60 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $290.31 | 15.8 | 18.32 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $245.18 | 14.7 | 16.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $149.72 | 0.8 | 182.38 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $434.12 | 26.0 | 16.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $451.31 | 27.1 | 16.67 | Analyst | medium |