Five Below (FIVE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$252.20+5.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FIVE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FIVE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 2, 2026 , Five Below, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its sales and earnings results for the second quarter and the year-to-date period ended August 1, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and is being furnished, not filed, under
Why it matters: Maintaining this guidance shows confidence in growth and market demand. A cut could indicate underlying issues.
Worry ifFull-year net sales guidance confirmed at $5.40 billion or higher.
Less concerning ifFull-year net sales guidance is now below $5.40 billion.
Why it matters: Meeting this sales target is crucial for the company's overall revenue goals for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 net sales reported between $1.18 billion and $1.20 billion.
Worry ifNet sales fall below $1.18 billion.
Why it matters: This EPS range shows strong profits. It can make investors feel more positive.
Supportive ifEPS reported within the range of $8.62 to $9.02.
Worry ifEPS reported below $8.62.
Why it matters: This report will show how well the company is doing and its 2026 goals.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and EPS exceeding guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue and EPS below guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $363 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,885 loss on $10,000 · 28.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This is a key measure of profitability. Meeting or exceeding this target shows strong financial health.
Supportive ifQ2 diluted EPS reported at $1.15 or higher.
Worry ifQ2 diluted EPS reported below $1.15.
Why it matters: Store openings are crucial for growth. Fewer than 50 openings could signal operational issues.
Worry ifFewer than 50 new store openings in Q2.
Less concerning if50 or more new store openings in Q2.
Why it matters: This guidance helps us understand the company's growth outlook and its place in the market.
Supportive ifRevenue for Q2 2026 is reported between $1.18 billion and $1.20 billion.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $1.18 billion for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Tariffs can affect product costs and pricing. Monitoring this helps gauge potential impacts on sales and margins.
Watch forSales outlook stays steady even with current tariff rates.
Also watch forSales outlook weakens due to the impact of tariffs.
Why it matters: This range shows if the company can maintain strong sales momentum. It reflects customer demand and store performance.
Supportive ifQ3 comparable sales growth lands between 8% and 10%.
Worry ifComparable sales growth falls below 8%.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is key to expanding market presence and revenue. It shows growth strategy execution.
Supportive ifThe company opens about 40 new stores in Q3.
Worry ifNew store openings fall below 30.
Why it matters: This range shows how well the company makes money and works efficiently. It shows management can control costs while boosting sales.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS reported within the range of $8.62 to $9.02 for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS falls below $8.62 for 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it signals a potential shift in the growth phase.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: Achieving this target shows the company's growth strategy is on track. It reflects management's commitment to expanding its footprint.
Supportive ifStore count reaches 2,170 by the end of 2026, with 200 new stores opened.
Worry ifStore count fails to reach 2,170 by the end of 2026.