Five Below (FIVE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$241.26-4.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FIVE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers
FIVE — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-14
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 14, 2026, Five Below, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Third Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”) among the Company (in such capacity, the “Borrower”), 1616 Holdings, Inc. (the “Guarantor” and with the Borrower, collectively, the “Loan Parties”), the lenders party thereto (the “Lenders”) and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association (“Wells”) as agent for the Lenders (in such capacity, the “Agent”), which amended that certain F…
Why it matters: The October 14 filing reports a change to a credit agreement and a new debt obligation. Its terms can show if borrowing costs or debt limits changed.
Worry ifThe full October 14 filing shows a higher interest rate, added fees, or tighter debt limits than before.
Less concerning ifThe full filing shows no increase in borrowing costs or tighter debt limits.
Why it matters: The company opened 101 stores in the first half and plans about 150 for the year. The next report can show whether openings keep pace.
Supportive ifThe company reports about 150 net new stores for fiscal 2026, with roughly 49 more added after the first half.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 ends with fewer than 150 net new stores, or management cuts the store plan.
Why it matters: Q2 comparable sales rose 14.1%, and management set an 8% to 10% range for Q3. Meeting it would show strong sales continued.
Supportive ifOn the December 2, 2026 earnings call, Q3 comparable sales are 8% to 10% or higher.
Worry ifQ3 comparable sales are below 8%.
Why it matters: The board approved a new $600 million buyback. Actual purchases would show the company is using this plan; the approval alone does not require purchases.
Watch forA filing or earnings release reports share purchases under the new program and states the amount.
Also watch forThe next earnings report shows no purchases under the program, or the company pauses or ends it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $345 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,885 loss on $10,000 · 28.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Five Below raised its sales range after strong first-half results. Reaching it would support the growth plan; falling short would weaken it.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 net sales are at least $5.63 billion, within or above the raised range.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 net sales are below $5.63 billion, or management cuts the range before year-end.