Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Five Below (FIVE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$241.26-4.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.06 → 11.07 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FIVE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $8.82 in 2026 | A primary condition in Five Below's published investment case. The stated target is ~$8.82. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $7.5 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $3.99 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$8.82. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 3, 20263.99 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 2, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FIVE is a growing retailer with a store-expansion thesis, supported by robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and execution still needs to support the expansion story.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a sizeable premium, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are demanding. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clear mismatch between valuation and the current business setup.
Near term, management’s revenue and EPS guidance has been raised, and the company opened 101 stores in the first three quarters of 2026 toward its approximately 150-store goal for the fiscal year. However, FIVE missed its most recent quarter and is on a run of consecutive misses, while a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on continued execution of store expansion and the raised revenue and EPS outlook. Near term, sector momentum may help if major retail bellwethers keep beating and raising guidance, while weaker results from those companies could remove that support.
FIVE’s growth and recent operating strength keep the long-term thesis intact, but expensive peer-relative valuation and recent earnings misses make execution the key test over the next 1 to 3 years. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Five Below's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable management and board. |
| Intact |
| Significant management turnover or strategic missteps |
0 executive departures vs 0 threshold Routine director election noted; no significant management turnover or strategic missteps reported in recent news or filings. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $5.44 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Five Below's published investment case. The stated target is ~$5.44B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $5.0 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.261B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.44B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 3, 20261,261,493,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand store count by 200 in 2026 | A primary condition in Five Below's published investment case. The stated target is Expand store count by 200. | Under Pressure | Store count expansion falls short of 150 new stores in 2026 | Target 200 stores vs Trip <150; Q2 earnings miss reported Guidance targets ~150 new stores in 2026. Q2 earnings missed expectations. Analysts question long-term growth sustainability. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.73 → $11.07 · observed estimates
$6.02B → $6.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.73 | $6,022,060,551 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.73 | $6,022,060,551 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.73 | $6,022,060,551 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.73 | $6,022,060,551 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.73 | $6,022,060,551 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.73 | $6,022,060,551 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-11 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.77 | $6,019,743,640 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.77 | $6,019,743,640 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.75 | $6,013,311,548 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.90 | $6,036,113,668 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.89 | $6,036,113,668 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.89 | $6,036,113,668 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.92 | $6,042,522,759 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.92 | $6,042,522,759 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.92 | $6,042,522,759 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.95 | $6,049,569,944 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.95 | $6,049,569,944 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.95 | $6,049,569,944 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.96 | $6,053,215,398 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.96 | $6,053,215,398 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.96 | $6,053,215,398 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.96 | $6,053,215,398 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.98 | $6,056,603,389 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.28 | $6,101,723,146 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.06 | $6,238,970,791 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.06 | $6,238,970,791 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.06 | $6,238,970,791 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.06 | $6,238,970,791 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.06 | $6,238,970,791 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.06 | $6,238,975,139 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.06 | $6,238,975,139 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.06 | $6,238,975,139 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.06 | $6,238,975,139 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.06 | $6,238,979,900 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.06 | $6,238,979,900 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.06 | $6,238,979,900 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.06 | $6,238,979,900 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.06 | $6,238,979,900 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.06 | $6,238,997,291 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.06 | $6,238,984,248 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.07 | $6,245,776,571 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.07 | $6,245,776,571 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.07 | $6,245,776,571 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.07 | $6,245,776,571 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.07 | $6,245,776,571 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.07 | $6,245,776,571 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.07 | $6,245,776,571 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.07 | $6,245,776,571 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.07 | $6,245,776,571 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.07 | $6,245,776,571 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.07 | $6,245,776,571 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.07 | $6,245,776,571 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.07 | $6,245,768,238 | 14 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.