Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Fulgent Genetics, Inc. (FLGT)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.66-5.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FLGT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash and investments near $636 million | It holds $636 million in cash and investments. | Intact | cash and investments fall below $600 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making business with an early-stage therapeutic pipeline, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent results are weak, while management priorities show mixed progress.
The valuation model describes FLGT as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that assessment is low. The expectations gap is negative, which points to limited expectations relative to the model, while recent weak results have not freshly broken the thesis.
Near term, revenue growth faces execution risk: processing delays led management to lower its 2026 revenue guidance, and the company has recorded recent earnings misses. Pipeline progress and the Bako Pathology acquisition may support the multi-year business, but neither has yet shown clear financial benefits in the evidence.
The next guidance update is a key near-term test, alongside whether recent earnings misses continue. Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on operational progress, integration of Bako Pathology, and clinical pipeline advancement; stronger results and guidance from sector peers could also support the backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, FLGT remains a high-risk, execution-dependent thesis with a supportive sector backdrop but weak recent financial performance. The evidence is mixed, and confidence in the valuation assessment is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Fulgent Genetics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= -$1.59. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below -$1.7 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $-1.05 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= -$1.59. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 2026-1.05 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve approximately $350 million revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Fulgent Genetics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $350 million. | Improving | annual revenue falls below $325 million in FY26 | Revenue: $85.389M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $350 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 202685,389,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.15 → $-1.38 · observed estimates
$0.40B → $0.38B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.53 | $402,281,180 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.53 | $402,281,180 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.53 | $402,281,180 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.53 | $402,281,180 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.53 | $402,281,180 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.53 | $382,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.53 | $382,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.15 | $401,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.38 | $382,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.