Fulgent Genetics, Inc. (FLGT)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.73+0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLGT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -70.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 83.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FLGT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, Fulgent Genetics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release containing this information is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue shows progress toward the $350 million target for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $71.1 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $71.1 million.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue guidance show how well Fulgent is handling challenges. This affects trust.
Worry ifManagement confirms revenue guidance of $330M-$340M for 2026. No further downward changes are expected.
Less concerning ifFurther downward revision of revenue guidance below $330M.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth picks up, it may help Fulgent's performance. The sector is currently slowing.
Supportive ifHealth care sector revenue growth returns to above 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealth care sector revenue growth continues to decline below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: The data could show that FID-007 works for head and neck cancer. Good results may help investors trust the company's treatments.
Supportive ifThe presentation shows a response rate over 60%. It also shows median survival without progression over 6 months.
Worry ifThe data shows a response rate below 60% or progression-free survival under 6 months.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$159 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $328 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,530 loss on $10,000 · 55.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping cash levels steady is important for operations and growth. A drop could hurt plans.
Worry ifCash and investments reported at or above $636 million by year-end 2026.
Less concerning ifCash and investments are below $600 million. This shows there may be liquidity problems.
Why it matters: This acquisition is important for growing laboratory services. Delays could slow down growth plans.
Supportive ifThe deal is confirmed. Plans for integration are now announced.
Worry ifThe acquisition may face delays or problems, which could hurt future growth.
Why it matters: Management cut revenue guidance to $330M-$340M due to processing delays. This shows problems in operations.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance confirmed at $330M-$340M with no further cuts.
Less concerning ifFurther downward revision of revenue guidance below $330M.
Why it matters: Starting a Phase 3 study shows trust in FID-007's clinical data and market potential.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the initiation of a Phase 3 study for FID-007.
Worry ifNo announcement of Phase 3 study initiation by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on the stock buyback plan show management's trust in the company's value and finances.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of more stock buybacks beyond the current 4.1 million shares.
Worry ifNo further stock repurchases announced or a halt in the program.
Why it matters: Updates on FID-022 could show how the therapy pipeline is doing and its revenue potential.
Watch forPositive trial results for FID-022 show it works well.
Also watch forNegative trial results for FID-022 raise doubts about its success.