Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Full House Resorts Inc (FLL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.79+4.73%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FLL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado operations contribute significant income | Full House Resorts aims to improve Colorado operations to boost income. | Intact | Colorado operations fail to generate significant positive income in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk casino growth and turnaround case, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management is making progress at American Place and Chamonix, while recent performance remains weaker than its industry cohort.
The valuation model suggests FLL is cheap versus peers, but confidence in that reading is low. Its expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in signal is labeled justified with no fragility gates triggered, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, losses and a history of recent earnings misses leave results at risk; the next print has an estimated 49% miss probability. In 2026-Q2, revenue grew at American Place and Chamonix, while Chamonix property EBITDA improved close to breakeven. Management’s priorities are generally on track, though the temporary American Place extension remains a watch item.
Over the next few quarters, a guidance cut would add to execution concerns, while continued growth and better property profitability would support the operating case. Over the multi-year view, progress toward the permanent American Place casino, expected to open in the second half of 2028, and the temporary facility’s ability to operate through February 2029 matter. Results from sector bellwethers could also strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.
For the 1- to 3-year view, FLL has real operating progress but remains a loss-making, high-risk business with recent results below its industry cohort. The thesis depends on sustained property improvements and delivery on the American Place plans. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company extended its credit agreement maturity to August 2027, easing near-term liquidity concerns. |
| Intact |
| credit agreement maturity not extended beyond January 2027 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Company revenue grows about 6% in 2026 | A primary condition in Full House Resorts Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth in FY26. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 5.57% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20265.568929 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.92 → $-0.94 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.92 | $329,010,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.92 | $329,010,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.92 | $329,010,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.92 | $329,010,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.92 | $329,010,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.92 | $329,010,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.92 | $329,010,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.92 | $329,010,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.92 | $329,010,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.92 | $329,010,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.92 | $329,210,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.92 | $329,210,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.92 | $329,210,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.95 | $330,360,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.82 | $331,248,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.88 | $332,462,128 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.94 | $331,645,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.94 | $331,645,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.94 | $331,645,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.94 | $331,645,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.94 | $331,645,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.94 | $331,605,928 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.