Full House Resorts Inc (FLL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.79+4.73%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -82.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 89.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
FLL — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-21
Regulation FD Disclosure As previously disclosed, and in compliance with applicable regulatory approvals, Full House Resorts, Inc. (the “Company”) intends to construct a permanent American Place casino in Waukegan, Illinois, to replace its current temporary facility. The permanent casino is designed to be significantly larger than the temporary casino. Over the past several months, the Company engaged in extensive negotiations with a major financial institution that has expressed a willingn…
Why it matters: FLL remains loss-making, even as Q2 Adjusted EBITDA rose. A result above the prior-year level would support the recent gains.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is above $11.1 million, the Q2 2025 level.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is below $11.1 million, or the net loss widens from Q2 2026's $8.7 million.
Why it matters: American Place set new revenue records in Q2. Another strong quarter would support growth at the temporary casino.
Supportive ifQ3 American Place revenue grows more than 13.4% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 American Place revenue is flat or falls year over year.
Why it matters: A 42-hour outage hurt Rising Star in Q2. A return to year-over-year growth would show that the decline was tied to the outage.
Supportive ifRising Star revenue grows year over year in the next reported quarter, with no similar outage noted.
Worry ifRising Star revenue falls from the same quarter last year again, or another major outage is reported.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$230 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $714 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,763 loss on $10,000 · 77.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.