Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Fluent Inc (FLNT)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.62+6.78%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FLNT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve full-year adjusted EBITDA in 2026 | A primary condition in Fluent Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EBITDA improves vs 2025. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA declines or remains negative through FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and recovery story, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is in a watch state: management is making progress on revenue and Commerce Media Solutions, while recent performance remains weak and momentum has faded.
The valuation evidence is mixed and low confidence: FLNT screens cheap versus peers, yet also carries a reported 0.54 premium versus peers. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap and weak performance suggest that confidence in execution is limited.
Near term, revenue progress is constructive: second-quarter continuing-business revenue grew 25% year over year, and Commerce Media Solutions revenue and margins improved. Adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed from the first quarter, but the company remains loss-making, and a recent earnings miss, falling momentum, and a 45% miss probability make the next report a key risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining the 2026 double-digit revenue growth goal and further improving adjusted EBITDA. A guidance cut would weaken the case; easier interest rates or continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
For a 1 to 3 year view, FLNT has real operating progress but still needs to show that growth can persist while losses shrink. The evidence supports a cautious, uncertain thesis rather than a settled recovery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With Commerce Media Solutions now the clear majority of our revenue and our strongest seasonal quarters ahead of us, we remain confident in delivering full-year double-digit revenue growth on our aggregate continuing businesses and improved full-year adjusted EBITDA," Mr. Patrick concluded.” “Don Patrick, Chief Executive Officer of Fluent, commented, “Our second quarter marked an inflection point we have been building toward.”
Commerce Media gross margin returns to mid-20s percent | Commerce Media margins are expected to improve to the mid-20s percent. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 20% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve double-digit revenue growth in 2026 | Fluent aims for double-digit revenue growth in 2026 despite recent declines. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 8.37% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20268.372478 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Consolidated revenue returned to year-over-year growth, increasing 8% to $48.4 million, revenue from aggregate continuing businesses increased 25% to $48.9 million, and Commerce Media Solutions revenue increased 90% to $30.5 million in the second quarter.” “With Commerce Media Solutions now the clear majority of our revenue and our strongest seasonal quarters ahead of us, we remain confident in delivering full-year double-digit revenue growth on our aggregate continuing businesses and improved full-year adjusted EBITDA," Mr. Patrick concluded.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Complete acquisition and integration of Winopoly, LLC | A supporting condition in Fluent Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Successful integration with positive contribution. | Intact | Acquisition fails to contribute or causes losses in FY26 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.07 → $-0.04 · observed estimates
$0.24B → $0.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.07 | $241,127,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.07 | $241,127,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.07 | $241,127,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.07 | $241,127,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.07 | $241,127,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.07 | $241,127,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.07 | $241,127,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.07 | $241,127,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.07 | $241,127,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.12 | $241,927,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.07 | $241,111,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.09 | $243,910,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.03 | $243,943,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.03 | $243,943,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.04 | $243,346,750 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.