Fluent Inc (FLNT)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.15+3.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLNT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -82.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 97.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FLNT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026, Fluent, Inc. issued a press release announcing second quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information included herein and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by re…
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA would show progress in financial health. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is better or less bad than Q1.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is worse compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A smaller drop in total revenue shows Fluent's business may stabilize and recover.
Supportive ifTotal revenue in Q2 2026 declines less than 10% year over year.
Worry ifTotal revenue declines more than 20% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue grows by double digits, it will show that the business is recovering.
Supportive ifManagement confirms full-year revenue growth guidance of at least 10% in Q3 earnings.
Worry ifManagement lowers its revenue growth forecast to below 10% for the year.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is important for Fluent's revenue and profit.
Supportive ifQ3 Commerce Media Solutions revenue growth exceeds 90% year over year.
Worry ifCommerce Media Solutions revenue growth falls below 70% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$296 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $653 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,860 loss on $10,000 · 48.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would show a recovery from recent drops. This is key for management's goal of double-digit growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: If the sector grows, it may mean Fluent is recovering.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for under a year.
Worry ifIf sector revenue growth stays negative, it may drop more.
Why it matters: This goal is important for investor trust and future funding. It shows the business is recovering.
Supportive ifFull-year revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to 2025.
Worry ifFull-year revenue growth is below 5% compared to 2025.
Why it matters: New partnerships can drive revenue growth and expand Fluent's market reach.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new media partnerships in Q3.
Worry ifNo new media partnerships announced in Q3.
Why it matters: This acquisition could enhance revenue streams and market presence. It reflects strategic growth.
Supportive ifWinopoly brings in over $1 million in revenue for Q2 2026.
Worry ifWinopoly does not contribute to revenue in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Exceeding 10% growth would support Fluent's goal of full-year double-digit revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% year-over-year compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A slowdown would challenge Fluent's strategy to scale this segment and improve margins.
Worry ifCommerce Media Solutions revenue growth is now below 50% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifCommerce Media Solutions revenue grew over 70% from last year.
Why it matters: A smaller adjusted EBITDA loss shows progress. The company is getting closer to making money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss improves to less than $1 million in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss remains above $2 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A successful launch would validate Fluent's expansion strategy and could drive new revenue.
Supportive ifNew retail partners are starting to use the in-store commerce media offering.
Worry ifNo new retail partners announced for the in-store offering by year-end 2026.