Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.18-11.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FLY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful execution of NASA contract and M&A integration | The company secured a major NASA contract and expanded its manufacturing hub. | Intact | contract cancellations or failed integration of acquisition | Backlog $1.5B vs FY26 target $420-$450M Q2 2026 record revenue and $1.5B backlog; new Space Force and Lockheed deals reinforce growth trajectory. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on growth through acquisitions. The current thesis state indicates a watchful approach due to recent weak financial performance and high operating losses.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility, suggesting that expectations are not overly pessimistic. However, FLY's valuation shows a premium compared to peers, indicating that some growth potential is already anticipated.
Management is focused on increasing revenue and managing operating losses, but recent financial results have been weak. The trajectory of revenue growth is on track, yet high operating losses remain a concern.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, FLY may benefit from positive sector momentum; conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could adversely affect FLY.
In the next 1 to 3 years, FLY's performance will depend on its ability to manage losses and capitalize on sector trends. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Firefly Aerospace, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating loss improves or stabilizes near -$95 million. |
| Broken |
| operating losses worsen beyond -$100 million next year |
Operating income: $-95.197M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss improves or stabilizes near -$95 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 2026-95,197,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches $420-$450 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Firefly Aerospace, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$435 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $150 million in FY26 | Revenue: $117.683M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$435 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026117,683,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Second Quarter 2026 Highlights • Record revenue of $117.7 million, up 45.5% from the prior quarter.” “2026 Full-Year Guidance • Firefly expects 2026 full-year revenue to be between $420 million and $450 million.” Revenue was $117.683 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.28 → $-1.50 · observed estimates
$0.70B → $0.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.28 | $704,935,897 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.28 | $704,935,897 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.28 | $704,935,897 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.28 | $704,923,397 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.28 | $704,923,397 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.28 | $704,923,397 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.51 | $695,525,510 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.51 | $695,525,510 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.28 | $695,598,575 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.51 | $695,525,510 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.51 | $695,525,510 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.51 | $695,525,510 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.51 | $695,525,510 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.51 | $695,525,510 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.28 | $695,598,575 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.51 | $695,525,510 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.51 | $695,525,510 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.51 | $695,525,510 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.28 | $695,598,575 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.51 | $695,525,510 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.28 | $695,598,575 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.28 | $695,598,575 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.28 | $695,598,575 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.28 | $695,598,575 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.28 | $695,598,575 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.28 | $695,598,575 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.28 | $695,598,575 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.44 | $684,898,959 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.44 | $684,898,959 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.44 | $684,895,839 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.44 | $684,895,839 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.44 | $684,895,839 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.44 | $684,895,839 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.44 | $684,900,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.44 | $684,898,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.44 | $684,898,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.44 | $684,898,139 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.48 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.48 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.48 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.48 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.48 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.50 | $684,898,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.50 | $684,900,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.50 | $684,860,089 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.50 | $684,860,089 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.