Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.67+2.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating losses stabilize or improve: metric not reported.
Firefly Aerospace aims to grow revenue to $420-$450 million in 2026. The company secured a major NASA contract and expanded its manufacturing hub. Revenue grew from $15.5 million in 2025-Q2 to $80.9 million in 2026-Q1. These moves support a potential recovery and growth.
Firefly is loss-making with operating losses increasing to $95.7 million in 2026-Q1. The stock has sold off sharply, down 56% from its high. Revenue growth may not sustain and losses could widen further.
The price is about 15% below our fair value near $30 but 30% below the Street median near $44. The market prices in a weak outlook with negative implied growth over 3-5 years. Our view is cautious given the loss-making status and recent selloff.
Breaks if: contract cancellations or failed integration of acquisition
Breaks if: operating losses worsen beyond -$100 million next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround scenario. The company is working to improve its financial performance and expand through acquisitions, but recent results have been weak, creating uncertainty in the thesis.
The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, with a low expectations gap. However, FLY is currently at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that some positive developments may already be anticipated.
Management is focused on increasing revenue and managing operating losses, but recent financial performance has been weak. The trajectory remains uncertain due to high operating losses and mixed progress on expansion efforts.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If they continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for FLY. Conversely, any negative guidance from these companies could adversely affect FLY's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company secured a major contract that boosts revenue potential. However, it also reported a recent earnings miss, which raises concerns about performance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on controlling operating losses while scaling production and expanding contracts.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating losses were $85.6 million in 2025-Q4, $95.7 million in 2026-Q1, and $95.2 million in 2026-Q2, showing losses remain high with limited improvement. Management continues to focus on managing losses while scaling operations, indicating mixed progress.
“Loss from operations was $95.2 million, reflecting investments in growth and production scale-up.”
“Loss from operations was $95.7 million, consistent with prior quarter's investments.”
“Loss from operations was $85.6 million, reflecting ongoing investments.”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $150 million in FY26
Achieve full-year 2026 revenue between $420 million and $450 million, reflecting strong growth and contract wins.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $57.7 million in 2025-Q4 to $80.9 million in 2026-Q1 and $117.7 million in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently reiterated the 2026 full-year revenue guidance of $420 million to $450 million, showing delivering trajectory.
“Firefly expects 2026 full-year revenue to be between $420 million and $450 million.”
“Firefly expects 2026 full-year revenue to be between $420 million and $450 million.”
“Firefly expects 2026 full-year revenue to be between $420 million and $450 million.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, FLY's performance will depend on its ability to execute its growth strategy and the overall health of the industrial sector. Not investment advice.