Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.67+2.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 271 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 93.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 125.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 56 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FLY — credit agreement
Dated 2026-04-03
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment to Credit Agreement On April 3, 2026, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to its Credit Agreement, dated as of August 8, 2025, by and among the Company, the other loan parties thereto, the lenders and issuing banks party thereto, and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent (as so amended, the “Credit Agreement”). The Amendment, among other things, increased the existing…
Why it matters: High operating losses may show trouble in scaling and managing costs. This affects investor confidence and future funding.
Worry ifOperating losses are over $90 million in Q3. This shows ongoing money issues.
Less concerning ifIf operating losses drop a lot, it shows better cost control and efficiency.
Why it matters: New M&A deals could support growth and align with management's expansion strategy.
Supportive ifA press release announcing a new M&A deal or agreement.
Worry ifNo announcements of M&A activity in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue shows strong growth momentum and supports full-year guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $117.7 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $100 million.
Why it matters: Fewer operating losses mean better control of costs. This also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating losses were below $90 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating losses were above $95 million in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$362 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $985 loss on $10,000 · 9.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,967 loss on $10,000 · 69.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adding Space-ng will help Firefly do better with autonomous operations. This can help Firefly compete more.
Supportive ifFirefly will give updates on how well Space-ng is integrated in the next quarter.
Worry ifIf there are integration problems or delays, it will hurt operational skills.
Why it matters: Completing these missions is important for proving Firefly's lunar skills. It helps secure future contracts and supports their growth in space.
Supportive ifFirefly meets the Blue Ghost mission milestones on time.
Worry ifDelays or problems with Blue Ghost missions make people worry about their skills.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can improve skills and help growth in the space sector.
Supportive ifLook for news about new acquisitions or partnerships. These can expand Firefly's technology.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements or partnerships in the next quarter. This shows slower growth.
Why it matters: New contracts would show Firefly leads in lunar exploration. This would help grow revenue.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new lunar contract worth over $50 million.
Worry ifNo new lunar contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Progress on this program could improve Firefly's reputation. It may also increase revenue from defense contracts.
Supportive ifLook for announcements about contract goals or new funding for the Golden Dome program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays have been reported for the Golden Dome program.
Why it matters: Updates on the launch schedule show how well Firefly can operate. They also show demand for their services.
Watch forAnnouncement of the Alpha launch schedule with at least three launches planned for 2027.
Also watch forDelay in the Alpha launch schedule or fewer than three launches planned.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the industrials sector.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrials sector rises back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth remains below 5% for another quarter.
Why it matters: If Firefly confirms revenue of $420-$450 million, it shows strong growth. This means management can handle contracts and grow operations.
Supportive ifFirefly reports 2026 revenue within the $420-$450 million range.
Worry ifIf revenue is less than $420 million, it shows problems with execution.
Why it matters: Successful testing could prove Firefly's launch abilities. It may help with future contracts.
Supportive ifIntegration and testing for Alpha Flight 8 finished early. This is ahead of schedule.
Worry ifDelays in the integration or testing phases for Alpha Flight 8.