Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.18-11.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 313 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
FLY — President transition
Dated 2026-10-06
Director — Thomas Zurbuchen: The filing reports the resignation of a director and the immediate appointment of a qualified successor, which is a standard board turnover event rather than a loss of senior executive management.
Why it matters: Losses stayed near $95 million in both Q1 and Q2. A clear drop would show that growth is coming with better cost control.
Watch forThe quarterly operating loss is under $95.2 million, the Q2 level.
Also watch forThe quarterly operating loss is $95.2 million or more.
Why it matters: A clean launch would build on Flight 7 and test the Block II upgrade. A delay or failure would raise execution concerns.
Watch forFirefly launches Alpha Flight 8 and reports that it met all main mission goals.
Also watch forFlight 8 is delayed beyond the next reported launch window, or the mission misses its main goals.
Why it matters: Firefly posted $198.6 million in revenue in the first half. Q3 results will show whether the annual target stays within reach.
Watch forOn the November 10 earnings call, Firefly keeps its $420M–$450M 2026 revenue guide and reports Q3 revenue of at least $105M.
Also watch forFirefly cuts its 2026 revenue guide below $420M, or reports Q3 revenue below $105M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$330 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $969 loss on $10,000 · 9.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,230 loss on $10,000 · 72.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.