Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.52-2.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.76 → 1.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FMNB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS of at least $0.40 in Q3 2026 and $1.62 in FY 2026 | Analysts expect stable earnings with EPS around $1.62 in 2026. | Improving | EPS falls below $0.40 in Q3 2026 or below $1.50 in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.39 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.40 Q3 2026, >= $1.62 FY 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.39 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FMNB is a regional banking business with a multi-year view shaped by acquisition integration, lending growth, and interest margins. The thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and recent financial performance is neutral.
The valuation is cheap versus peers, and the evidence labels expectations as justified, with little gap between expectations and the model. Fragility is low, though execution quality remains a concern.
Near term, the recent earnings beats and completed core technology conversion are positive, while reported revenue and income growth also reflect the Middlefield acquisition. Net interest margin improved through Q3, but management expects some moderation in Q4; commercial lending growth is substantive, though execution is mixed overall.
The multi-year thesis depends on completing integration, sustaining commercial lending growth, and managing margins as rates change. Near term, a guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FMNB’s cheap-versus-peers valuation and progress on integration and margins support an intact thesis, but acquisition effects, mixed execution, and rate sensitivity keep confidence measured. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The bank is focused on creating long-term shareholder value. |
| Intact |
| Shareholder returns decline materially over 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand net interest margin by 25 basis points in Q2 2026 | The company aims to expand its net interest margin by 25 basis points in Q2 2026. | Intact | net interest margin expansion falls below 15 basis points in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.75 → $1.78 · observed estimates
$0.29B → $0.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.75 | $292,450,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.75 | $292,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.75 | $292,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.75 | $292,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.75 | $292,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.76 | $289,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.78 | $293,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.78 | $293,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.78 | $293,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.78 | $293,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.78 | $293,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.78 | $295,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.78 | $295,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.