Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.07+1.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FMNB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FMNB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-01-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, Farmers National Banc Corp. (the “Company”) announced earnings for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release and certain financial information for this period is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein. Also on January 28, 2026, the Company first provided investors with a supplemental presentation regarding fourth quarter earnings and other current financial information, att…
Why it matters: Completing this deal is key for joining Middlefield. It will improve operations.
Supportive ifCore technology conversion is completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifCore technology conversion is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A wider net interest margin means the bank earns more on loans. This supports growth.
Supportive ifNet interest margin increases by at least 25 basis points in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet interest margin fails to increase or narrows.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it could signal trouble for the financial sector. This affects all banks.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in commercial lending shows strong demand. This can increase overall earnings.
Supportive ifCommercial lending fundings exceed $175 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCommercial lending fundings drop below $100 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in non-performing loans shows better credit quality. It also shows effective management.
Supportive ifNon-performing loans drop below $40 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNon-performing loans increase back above $50 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stabilizing the net interest margin is key for making money. It shows good interest rate management.
Watch forNet interest margin reported within the range of 3.34% to 3.37% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 3.30% in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $239 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,643 loss on $10,000 · 16.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.