Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-26 · fmp
Fabrinet (FN)
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$292.97-14.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
21.73 → 23.99 EPS · FY ending Jun 26, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit at least $144M in Q3 2026 | A supporting condition in Fabrinet's published investment case. The stated target is >= $144M. | Intact | Gross profit falls below $144M in 2026-Q3 | Gross profit: $173.798M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $144M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 2026173,798,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-26 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FN is an execution-led growth business, with recent results showing strong financial performance. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the risk level is high and momentum has weakened.
FN is described as cheap versus peers, and the pricing signal is tagged as justified, with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be demanding, although the evidence does not specify exactly what the market assumes.
Near term, revenue and operating income have risen, and second-quarter revenue exceeded guidance. Management’s growth and operating income priorities are on track, while progress on named strategic customer agreements is mixed. The next guidance update matters because past deep misses and a downward trend in earnings surprises leave some execution risk despite the stated low near-term miss probability.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative for the thesis. Fed rate cuts or stabilization among technology-sector peers could support the near-term backdrop, but the evidence does not establish whether either will occur. Over the multi-year view, sustained revenue and operating income growth, alongside stronger delivery on strategic customer programs, remain key swing factors.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FN’s thesis rests on continued execution, with recent growth supporting it but high risk and weaker momentum tempering the picture. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins improve with operating income rising from $79.6M to $120M. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $120M in 2026-Q3 |
Operating income: $146.005M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $120M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 2026146,005,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Seamus Grady, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Fab rine t, said, “Fiscal year 2027 is off to an excellent start with record revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share that were well above our guidance ranges.” “• Non-GAAP net income per diluted share is expected to be in the range of $4.77 to $4.92, based on approximately 36.2 million fully diluted shares outstanding.” Operating income was $146.005 million in 2027-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Revenue growth to at least $1.27B in Q4 2026 | A primary condition in Fabrinet's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.27B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.27B in 2026-Q4 | Revenue: $1.474B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.27B. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20261,474,459,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Seamus Grady, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Fab rine t, said, “Fiscal year 2027 is off to an excellent start with record revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share that were well above our guidance ranges.” “Business Outlook Based on information available as of November 2, 2026, Fabrinet is issuing guidance for its second fiscal quarter ending December 25, 2026, as follows: • Fabrinet expects second quarter revenue to be in the range of $1.6 billion to $1.65 billion.” Revenue was $1.474 billion in 2027-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$21.37 → $23.99 · observed estimates
$6.90B → $7.87B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | $21.37 | $6,902,141,546 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $21.37 | $6,902,141,546 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $21.73 | $7,269,159,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $21.73 | $7,270,909,188 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $21.73 | $7,270,906,138 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $21.73 | $7,270,906,138 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $21.73 | $7,270,906,138 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $21.73 | $7,270,906,138 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $21.73 | $7,270,906,138 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $21.73 | $7,270,906,138 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $21.73 | $7,270,906,138 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $21.86 | $7,294,368,637 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $21.86 | $7,294,368,637 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $21.86 | $7,294,368,637 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $21.86 | $7,294,368,637 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $21.86 | $7,294,368,637 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $21.86 | $7,294,368,700 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $21.86 | $7,294,368,700 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $21.86 | $7,294,362,863 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $21.86 | $7,294,365,913 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $21.86 | $7,294,365,913 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $21.86 | $7,294,365,913 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $22.43 | $7,404,393,087 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $23.99 | $7,873,922,263 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $23.99 | $7,873,922,263 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 9 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.