Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Funko, Inc. (FNKO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.13-6.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.30 → 0.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FNKO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA $70M to $80M in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $70M and $80M. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $70M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures This release contains references to non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted net income (loss), per share amounts, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted net income (loss) margin, which are financial measures that are not prepared in conformity with United States generally accepted accounting principles (U.S. GAAP).” “Management uses these measures internally for evaluating its operating performance, for planning purposes, including the preparation of our annual operating budget and financial projections, to assess incentive compensation for our employees, and to evaluate our capacity to expand our business.” Operating income was $22.139 million in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-sensitive recovery story, not yet a proven durable compounder: recent results and raised guidance show progress, but the evidence still labels earnings quality as loss-making. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with high risk and medium confidence.
The valuation is described as carrying a durable premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is small and the priced-in assessment is tagged justified. The evidence does not provide enough detail to call the shares cheap, fair, or expensive overall.
Near term, recent sales growth and adjusted EBITDA improvement are ahead of the company’s earlier full-year targets, and management has raised its 2026 sales, margin, and EBITDA guidance. Margin gains include tariff benefits and product mix, so their durability is not established; a guidance reversal would also damage credibility.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on whether FNKO can sustain sales growth and improve profitability without relying too heavily on temporary tariff benefits or favorable product mix. Sector bellwethers’ results could support or weaken the consumer discretionary backdrop, while any guidance cut after the recent raises would be a key negative signal.
FNKO shows meaningful near-term execution progress, but the multi-year view remains mixed because earnings quality is still flagged as loss-making, risk is high, and recent performance trails its industry cohort. The key test is whether raised guidance becomes durable operating progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain 2026 full-year gross margin 41% to 43% | It targets a gross margin near 42% to 43%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 41% in FY26 | Gross margin: 49.04% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 41% to 43%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202649.038364 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures This release contains references to non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted net income (loss), per share amounts, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted net income (loss) margin, which are financial measures that are not prepared in conformity with United States generally accepted accounting principles (U.S. GAAP).” “Management uses these measures internally for evaluating its operating performance, for planning purposes, including the preparation of our annual operating budget and financial projections, to assess incentive compensation for our employees, and to evaluate our capacity to expand our business.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Effective leadership and product launches | New product launches and leadership changes support growth. | Intact | Negative leadership news or failed product launches | Qualitative: Positive news flow (3 earnings beats, EBITDA guide raised to $100M-$110M) Q2 2026 earnings beat estimates; full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $100M-$110M; new product preorders selling out. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2026 full-year net sales flat to up 3% | A primary condition in Funko, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 0% to 3% growth in 2026. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 7.37% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 0% to 3% growth in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20267.365521 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures This release contains references to non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted net income (loss), per share amounts, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted net income (loss) margin, which are financial measures that are not prepared in conformity with United States generally accepted accounting principles (U.S. GAAP).” “Management uses these measures internally for evaluating its operating performance, for planning purposes, including the preparation of our annual operating budget and financial projections, to assess incentive compensation for our employees, and to evaluate our capacity to expand our business.” Revenue was $207.719 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.16 → $0.30 · observed estimates
$0.99B → $1.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.22 | $986,844,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.22 | $986,844,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.22 | $986,844,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.22 | $986,844,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.22 | $986,844,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.22 | $986,844,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.22 | $986,844,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.22 | $986,844,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.22 | $987,844,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.22 | $987,844,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.22 | $987,844,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.42 | $988,250,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.42 | $988,250,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.42 | $988,250,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.16 | $992,313,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.16 | $993,464,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.16 | $993,464,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.16 | $993,464,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.16 | $993,464,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.16 | $993,464,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.24 | $996,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.23 | $996,100,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.23 | $996,100,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.23 | $996,100,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.23 | $996,100,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.23 | $996,100,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.23 | $996,100,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.23 | $996,100,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.23 | $996,100,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.23 | $996,100,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.23 | $996,100,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.23 | $996,100,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.23 | $996,100,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.30 | $1,009,167,667 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.