Funko, Inc. (FNKO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.68-0.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FNKO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FNKO — officer change
Dated 2026-03-06
Chief International Officer — Andrew Oddie: Mr. Oddie's job title was changed to Chief International Officer and he will no longer reside in the United States for his employment.
Why it matters: Stable or lower inventory levels mean better management. They also match what customers want.
Supportive ifQ3 inventory levels go down or stay the same compared to Q2.
Worry ifQ3 inventory levels go up a lot compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Core Collectibles bring in a lot of money. Ongoing growth shows there is strong demand in the market.
Supportive ifCore Collectibles sales grow year over year by more than 9%.
Worry ifCore Collectibles sales decline year over year.
Why it matters: Sales results will show if Funko can meet its goal of flat to 3% growth for 2026.
Watch forQ2 net sales were over $200M. This shows progress toward the sales goal.
Also watch forQ2 net sales were under $180M. This shows a continued sales decline.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin range shows good cost control and steady product mix.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin reported at 43% or higher.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin reported below 43%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$256 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $618 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,408 loss on $10,000 · 44.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If growth is flat or positive in Q3, it shows the company can meet its sales target.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth reported at 1% or better compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 0% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows the company is performing well and managing costs.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA reported at $25 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was less than $25 million.
Why it matters: This range shows if Funko can grow sales after a weak Q1. Meeting or exceeding this range indicates recovery.
Supportive ifQ2 net sales reported above $205 million.
Worry ifQ2 net sales reported below $195 million.
Why it matters: Meeting the sales target is key to showing growth after a weak start in Q1.
Supportive ifQ2 net sales growth is at least 3% compared to Q1.
Worry ifQ2 net sales growth is below 0% or worse than -3%.
Why it matters: Growth in international sales shows successful expansion. It means more people want Funko products outside the U.S.
Supportive ifInternational sales grew by over 10% from last year.
Worry ifInternational sales fell below 0% from last year.