Finward Bancorp (FNWD)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.90+0.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FNWD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -9.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FNWD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is being “furnished” and will not, except to the extent required by applicable law or regulation, be deemed “filed” by the Bancorp for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor will any of such information or exhibits be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or…
Why it matters: Loan growth is crucial for revenue. Sustained growth indicates strong demand and operational health.
Supportive ifNew commercial loans reach over $81.3 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNew commercial loans drop below $81.3 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher net income means better operations and chances for growth.
Supportive ifQ2 net income reported above $2.24 million.
Worry ifQ2 net income reported below $2.24 million.
Why it matters: More non-performing loans can show credit quality problems. Stability is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifNon-performing loans decrease from $16.5 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNon-performing loans increase beyond $16.5 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Regulatory approval is crucial for the merger to proceed. Delays could impact Finward's future.
Supportive ifThe FDIC and DFI approved the merger with First Financial.
Worry ifRegulators do not approve the merger. They add conditions that delay it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$71 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $252 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,353 loss on $10,000 · 23.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing financially.
Watch forEarnings results were better than what analysts expected. This is a positive surprise.
Also watch forEarnings results were worse than what analysts expected. This is a negative surprise.
Why it matters: A confirmed buyback program shows good use of money. It also helps share value.
Supportive ifThe company announced a share buyback program. It includes a specific dollar amount.
Worry ifNo announcement of a buyback program by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: Net income is a key measure of profitability. A decline may signal deeper issues.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 is at least $2.1 million, matching or exceeding Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income falls below $2.1 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows strong finances. It attracts investors who want income.
Supportive ifAn announcement confirming the dividend of $0.12 per share is paid as planned.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Finward's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above the median of 15%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company will announce a dividend of $0.12 per share in the future.
Worry ifThe company reduces the dividend below $0.12 per share.
Why it matters: The merger is a key growth strategy. It could enhance Finward's market position and resources.
Supportive ifThe merger will close in Q4 2026. It needs all approvals first.
Worry ifThe merger does not close. This is due to regulatory or shareholder problems.
Why it matters: Higher margins mean the company makes more money. It also shows good loan management.
Supportive ifNet interest margin exceeds 3.37% in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.25% in the next quarterly report.