Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Shift4 (FOUR)
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$44.82+8.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.94 → 7.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FOUR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted free cash flow target for FY 2026 | Free cash flow targets are a focus, supporting financial health. | Intact | adjusted free cash flow target not met in FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We believe Adjusted Free Cash Flow is useful to measure the funds generated in a given period that are available to invest in the business, to repurchase stock and to make strategic decisions.” “Lastly, net cash from operating activities was $134 million (up 40%) and Adjusted Free Cash Flow was $88 million (up 26%).” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FOUR is a growth-oriented financial business with robust earnings quality, but its risk is now rated high and management execution has been volatile. The long-term thesis is still supported by growth and profitability progress, though recent performance is below its industry cohort and the thesis has not freshly broken.
The valuation evidence labels expectations as justified, with low fragility and no sign that one market regime is concentrating fragility. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot does not explain its scale in plain terms or provide a peer valuation comparison, so how much optimism is already reflected remains uncertain.
Near term, revenue growth remains strong: gross revenue less network fees rose 49% year over year in 2026-Q1, while 2026 guidance calls for 26%-31% growth. Operating income has improved, but adjusted free cash flow guidance was lowered, and recent performance remains below peers; the risk rating also moved from elevated to high.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued growth and operating improvement would support the multi-year thesis. The outlook also depends on rates and sector signals: rate cuts could weigh on financial firms, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FOUR’s thesis is supported by strong revenue growth and improving operating income, but high risk, lower cash-flow guidance, and relative weakness make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improves to at least $50 million in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Shift4's published investment case. The stated target is >= $50 million in Q1 2026. | Broken | operating income falls below $50 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income: $95M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $50 million in Q1 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202695,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $2.0B in FY 2025 and $0.71B in Q4 2026 | A primary condition in Shift4's published investment case. The stated target is >= $710 million in Q4 2026 and >= $2.0 billion in FY 2025. | Intact | revenue falls below $710 million in Q4 2026 or below $2.0 billion in FY 2025 | Revenue: $1.295B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $710 million in Q4 2026 and >= $2.0 billion in FY 2025. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20261,295,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dear Fellow Shareholders, The second quarter of 2026 reinforced three themes: the durability of our growth, the global appetite for our products, and the strength of our position at the center of the experience economy.” “Gross revenue was $1.1 billion, which is up 32% year over year.” Revenue was $1.295 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.94 → $7.94 · observed estimates
$5.58B → $5.58B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.73 | $5,808,137,680 | 23 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.73 | $5,811,301,970 | 23 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.73 | $5,811,301,970 | 23 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.73 | $5,811,301,970 | 23 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.73 | $5,811,301,970 | 23 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.74 | $5,811,301,970 | 23 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.74 | $5,811,301,970 | 23 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.57 | $5,820,994,430 | 22 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.35 | $5,860,884,640 | 21 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.35 | $5,860,884,640 | 21 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.32 | $5,870,022,750 | 21 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.94 | $5,576,000,000 | 17 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.