Shift4 (FOUR)
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$45.94+3.96%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FOUR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FOUR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-13
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Credit Agreement Amendment On July 8, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Shift4 Payments, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Shift4, LLC”), and a direct subsidiary of Shift4 Payments, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), and certain other wholly-owned subsidiaries of Shift4, LLC (the “Subsidiary Guarantors”) entered into Amendment No. 4 to Second Amended and Restated First Lien Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), which amended the Second…
Why it matters: Operating income growth shows profitability. A decline from $50 million in Q2 would raise concerns.
Worry ifQ3 operating income is more than $50 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating income is less than $50 million.
Why it matters: The financial sector's growth rate impacts Shift4's performance. A drop below median growth could signal broader issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains above its median, supporting Shift4's growth.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is below its median. This shows possible challenges for Shift4.
Why it matters: Volume growth is crucial for Shift4's revenue and market position.
Supportive ifVolume growth exceeds 20% year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifVolume growth is below 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Sector growth trends impact Shift4's ability to expand and attract customers.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows how well Shift4 is improving profits. A drop could signal issues.
Worry ifOperating income growth above 50% year over year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth below 50% year over year.
Why it matters: Volume growth is a key performance metric for Shift4's business.
Supportive ifVolume growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifVolume growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss would worry investors. They may doubt management's ability to meet goals.
Worry ifThe next earnings report shows a miss compared to what analysts expected.
Less concerning ifThe next earnings report meets or beats what analysts expected.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well Shift4 is managing cash. A drop could indicate financial stress.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow guidance raised above $465 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted free cash flow guidance at $465 million or lower.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows better cash handling and smooth operations. It is very important for management.
Supportive ifAdjusted Free Cash Flow meets or exceeds the target set for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted Free Cash Flow falls short of the target for 2026.
Why it matters: Adjusted free cash flow is key for funding growth. A drop below $465 million would signal issues.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted free cash flow above $465 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted free cash flow below $465 million.
Why it matters: This metric shows how well Shift4 is expanding its business. A drop below 26% growth would raise concerns.
Worry ifQ3 gross revenue less network fees growth rate above 26%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross revenue less network fees growth rate below 26%.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Shift4. A drop below 13% signals a potential slowdown.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 13% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 13% year over year.
Why it matters: Operating income shows how profitable a company is. A drop may worry investors about costs.
Worry ifOperating income was less than $50 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating income was more than $50 million in Q3.
Why it matters: If integration works, it shows Shift4 can grow by buying other companies. This would help build trust.
Supportive ifManagement says they have combined Global Blue well. They see benefits from this.
Worry ifManagement says there are issues or delays with combining Global Blue.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$278 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $692 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,932 loss on $10,000 · 59.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.