Shift4 (FOUR)
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$42.79-4.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FOUR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 24 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FOUR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-13
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Credit Agreement Amendment On July 8, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Shift4 Payments, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Shift4, LLC”), and a direct subsidiary of Shift4 Payments, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), and certain other wholly-owned subsidiaries of Shift4, LLC (the “Subsidiary Guarantors”) entered into Amendment No. 4 to Second Amended and Restated First Lien Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), which amended the Second…
Why it matters: The earnings date is November 5. Results and any updated guidance can test growth and cash goals.
Watch forThe November 5 report keeps or raises the 2026 growth and cash flow ranges.
Also watch forThe November 5 report cuts the 2026 growth or cash flow ranges.
Why it matters: Management lists higher operating income as a key goal. Q1 operating income rose to $50 million from $25 million.
Supportive ifQ3 operating income is above the same quarter last year.
Worry ifQ3 operating income is at or below the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: Management names Global Blue gains and costs as part of its outlook. Q3 results can show whether the deal is adding value.
Watch forManagement reports Global Blue synergies and raises its 2026 outlook for the deal.
Also watch forManagement reports missed synergy goals or cuts its 2026 outlook for the deal.
Why it matters: Shift4 cut its 2026 cash flow goal from $510 million to $465–$475 million. Another cut would add to that warning.
Worry ifManagement lowers the 2026 adjusted free cash flow range below $465 million.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps the range at $465–$475 million or raises it.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$249 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $695 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,178 loss on $10,000 · 51.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a top management goal. Q3 results will show whether growth stays near the 2026 target.
Watch forQ3 gross revenue less network fees grows at least 26% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 gross revenue less network fees grows less than 26% year over year.
Why it matters: Shift4 named expansion to 15 countries as a 2026 goal. The year-end count will show whether it met that milestone.
Supportive ifA company update confirms Shift4One is live in 15 countries by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifA company update confirms Shift4One is live in fewer than 15 countries at year-end.