Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Farmland Partners, Inc. (FPI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.77-2.12%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.20 → 0.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FPI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain high-quality farmland assets | Farmland Partners owns high-quality U.S. | Intact | Asset quality declines materially | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FPI is a higher-risk, rate-sensitive real estate investment with a mixed near-term setup rather than a clear durable-growth story. Its long-term thesis is still intact, but confidence is medium and recent signals have weakened.
The valuation model shows FPI at a 2.22-times premium to peers, with a 0.32 expectations gap, though model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment calls the setup unjustified, but flags low overall fragility rather than a broad stack of valuation, execution, and market risks.
Recent financial performance remains in the top half of the industry, and management has made progress on property dispositions and maintained the higher dividend. However, the latest quarter included a net loss and California asset impairments, while momentum fell sharply and the latest earnings report was a miss. Near-term risk is elevated, even though the miss-risk estimate is described as low.
A key multi-year swing factor is whether management can continue reducing California exposure without further impairments or a reversal in guidance after its recent increase. Lower interest rates could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weakness at major sector peers could remove that support. The evidence for the broader forward outlook is limited.
Over the next one to three years, FPI’s thesis rests on management execution and the balance between rate support and elevated operating risk. Recent results keep the thesis intact, but losses, weaker momentum, and a peer valuation premium make the picture mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Farmland Partners, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain disciplined capital management. |
| Intact |
| Capital management deteriorates or leads to poor returns |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage loan loss impact on guidance | A primary condition in Farmland Partners, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further guidance cuts due to loan losses. | Recovered | Guidance cut again due to loan losses | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near consensus | A primary condition in Farmland Partners, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -12% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below -12% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.20 → $0.20 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.20 | $42,959,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.20 | $42,959,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.20 | $42,959,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.20 | $42,959,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.20 | $42,959,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.20 | $42,959,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.24 | $43,971,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.24 | $43,971,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.24 | $43,971,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.24 | $43,971,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.20 | $36,212,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.21 | $36,475,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.21 | $36,475,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.21 | $36,475,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.21 | $36,475,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.21 | $36,475,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.21 | $36,475,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.21 | $36,475,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.21 | $36,475,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.21 | $36,475,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.21 | $36,475,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.20 | $31,599,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.