Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
FORGENT POWER SOLUTIONS INC (FPS)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.21-18.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.01 → 2.01 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FPS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income rises to $39.3 million in Q3 2026 | Profit improved with net income rising to $18.3 million in Q3. | Broken | Operating income falls below $30 million in Q3 2026 | Operating income: $39.336M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $39.3M in Q3 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. May 14, 202639,336,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FPS is a growth and capacity-expansion story, with recent revenue, backlog, and margin gains supporting the multi-year view. The thesis is currently intact, though management is rated neutral and overall risk is high.
The evidence gives no valuation comparison or detail on market expectations, so whether FPS is cheap or expensive versus peers is unclear. Fragility is rated low, with no identified signals that expectations are unusually concentrated.
Near-term results have been strong: quarterly revenue and backlog increased, and margins improved, while Powertrain Solutions reported substantial fiscal-year growth. Capacity investment supports the longer-term growth plan, but labor and facility ramp costs remain a constraint, and recent missed quarters and industry-wide miss risk warrant attention.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued customer demand, backlog growth, and successful capacity expansion without losing margin progress. Near term, a reversal of the guidance increase would hurt management credibility; industrial-sector bellwethers continuing to raise guidance would support the sector backdrop, while misses or cuts could remove that support.
The 1-3 year view remains intact, supported by strong recent performance and delivery on growth priorities, but execution and the sector headwind keep risk high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit improved with net income rising to $18.3 million in Q3. |
| Broken |
| Net income falls below $10 million in Q3 2026 |
Net income: $18.287M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $18.3M in Q3 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. May 14, 202618,287,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year 2026 revenue at about $1.37 billion | Forgent Power Solutions raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to about $1.37 billion. | Intact | Full-year revenue falls below $1.3 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $378.709M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.37B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. May 14, 2026378,709,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.01 → $2.01 · observed estimates
$2.85B → $3.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.01 | $2,849,088,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.84 | $2,849,088,970 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.84 | $2,849,088,970 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.84 | $2,849,088,970 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.67 | $2,849,059,620 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.67 | $2,849,059,620 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.67 | $2,849,059,620 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.67 | $2,849,059,620 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.67 | $2,849,059,620 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.01 | $3,390,977,912 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.01 | $3,390,977,912 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.98 | $3,377,913,543 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.98 | $3,377,913,543 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.98 | $3,377,913,543 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.98 | $3,377,913,543 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.98 | $3,380,194,130 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.98 | $3,380,194,130 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.98 | $3,380,194,130 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.98 | $3,380,194,130 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.98 | $3,380,194,130 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.98 | $3,371,102,493 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.98 | $3,371,102,493 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.01 | $3,400,738,552 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.01 | $3,400,738,552 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.01 | $3,400,738,552 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.01 | $3,400,738,552 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.01 | $3,396,634,865 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.01 | $3,396,634,865 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.01 | $3,396,634,865 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.01 | $3,396,634,865 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.02 | $3,406,113,552 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.02 | $3,406,113,552 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.02 | $3,406,113,619 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.02 | $3,406,113,619 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.02 | $3,406,113,619 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.02 | $3,406,684,973 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.02 | $3,406,684,973 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.02 | $3,406,684,973 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.02 | $3,406,684,973 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.02 | $3,406,684,973 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.02 | $3,406,684,973 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.02 | $3,406,684,973 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.02 | $3,406,684,907 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.02 | $3,406,676,640 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.02 | $3,406,676,640 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.02 | $3,406,676,640 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.02 | $3,406,676,640 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.01 | $3,404,739,975 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.01 | $3,404,739,975 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.01 | $3,404,739,975 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.01 | $3,404,739,975 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.01 | $3,404,739,975 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.01 | $3,404,739,975 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.01 | $3,404,739,975 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.01 | $3,404,739,975 | 6 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.