FORGENT POWER SOLUTIONS INC (FPS)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.35+2.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FPS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 146 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
FPS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-26
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 23, 2026, Forgent Power LLC (the “ Parent Borrower ”), a subsidiary of Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into that certain Amendment No. 1 (“ Amendment No. 1 ”) to its Credit Agreement, dated as of December 19, 2025 (the “ Existing Credit Agreement ”; as amended by Amendment No. 1, the “ Amended Credit Agreement ,” and the credit facilities thereunder, the “ Senior Credit Facilities ”), by and among Forgent Intermediat…
Why it matters: Improved earnings would show progress in addressing past misses. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $18.3 million.
Worry ifNet income falls below $18.3 million or shows no improvement.
Why it matters: Earnings misses can hurt investor trust. They may also show problems in operations. This could affect future growth.
Worry ifAnother earnings report shows results lower than expected for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifEarnings report meets or exceeds expectations in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows the company is generating more cash to support growth and investments.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $29 million in Q4.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $29 million.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows strong demand and growth potential. It confirms management's positive outlook.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance for fiscal 2026. It is now over $1,390 million.
Worry ifRevenue guidance remains unchanged or is lowered from the current range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$330 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $868 loss on $10,000 · 8.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,471 loss on $10,000 · 54.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows better profits and success. It shows how healthy the business is.
Supportive ifNet income reported above $24 million.
Worry ifNet income reported below $24 million.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue and earnings trends. This is crucial for future guidance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and positive earnings results.
Also watch forEarnings report shows ongoing misses or falling revenue.
Why it matters: Slowing backlog growth may mean less demand. This affects future revenue.
Worry ifBacklog growth rate falls below 33% quarter-over-quarter in Q4.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth stays above 33% from last quarter in Q4.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if demand remains strong and supports continued growth. It confirms the company's ability to meet high customer demand.
Supportive ifFourth quarter revenue guidance is confirmed within the range of $392 million to $432 million.
Worry ifFourth quarter revenue guidance falls below $392 million.
Why it matters: A steady or rising net income margin shows good cost control and profit. This builds investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income margin stays above 6.5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet income margin drops below 6.5%.
Why it matters: An expanding adjusted EBITDA margin shows the company is managing costs well as revenue grows. This is crucial for long-term growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin grows from 22.4% each quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin contracts or stays flat.
Why it matters: A stable or growing backlog indicates strong future revenue potential. It reflects ongoing demand for Forgent's products.
Supportive ifBacklog remains above $1.98 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifBacklog falls below $1.98 billion.