Reading FR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FR free→Reading FR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FR free→NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, FR is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If FR cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $63.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $64 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $48 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $65–$68. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 32% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.43 → $0.42 (-1.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$101.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$179.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,024.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows good financial health. This attracts investors.
Confirms:Look for news about a dividend increase or steady dividend payments.
Disproves:News of a dividend cut or suspension is a concern.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On April 22, 2026, First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 and certain other information. Attached and incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of the Company’s press release dated April 22, 2026, announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 and certain other information. On April 23, 2026, th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$65.00 – $68.00 (median $66.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FR First Industrial Realty Trust | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | low |
PLD Prologis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | low |
LINE Lineage Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | full | moderate |
EGP EastGroup Properties | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | low |
CUBE CubeSmart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on acquiring properties to drive revenue growth.
Continue to increase dividends as part of capital allocation strategy.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company is controlling costs. It is also making more money.
Confirms:Operating income grows to at least $160M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $150M in Q2.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how well the company is buying new properties. This affects overall earnings.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth is over 10% compared to last year. This shows strong success in getting new customers.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is less than 5% year over year, suggesting acquisition struggles.
Why it matters: A rise in sector growth may mean better results for First Industrial.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% compared to last year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: New property acquisitions can boost revenue and support growth goals.
Confirms:Look for news about a big property purchase over $10 million.
Disproves:No new property purchases are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows the company wants to give value back to shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend per share increases to at least $0.52 in Q2.
Disproves:No increase in dividend per share, remaining at $0.50 or lower.