Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Freshpet (FRPT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$64.82-9.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.77 → 1.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FRPT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures near $150 million in 2026 | Management guides disciplined capital spending near $150M with positive cash flow. | Intact | Capital expenditures exceed $175 million in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $29.725M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$150 million. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 5, 202629,725,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FRPT is a growth-oriented consumer staples business, with recent results showing rising sales and improving profitability. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the overall signal has recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and risk remains elevated.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a premium of 1.8 times. The expectations gap is sizable, but confidence in that estimate is low; the evidence points mainly to valuation as a source of fragility, rather than a broader mix of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and market turbulence.
Near-term results show sales up 15.5% year over year in 2026-Q2, higher net income, and a raised 2026 sales-growth outlook. Gross margin improved, but its management status is mixed, while the long-term margin goal was also raised. Near-term earnings-miss risk is described as low, though a prior deep miss and declining earnings surprises remain cautions.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued sales growth, margin progress, and better profitability. Near term, a guidance cut after the recent increase would damage confidence, while weaker employment data could increase pressure on consumer staples. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FRPT’s improving fundamentals support an intact long-term thesis, but the expensive peer valuation and execution risks make the evidence mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Outlook For full year 2026, the Company is updating its guidance and now expects the following: • Net sales growth in the range of 12% to 13%, compared to growth of 10% to 12% in the previous guidance; • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $215 million to $220 million, compared to $210 million to $220 million in the previous guidance; and • Positive Free Cash Flow with capital expenditures between $125 to $150 million, compared to ~$150 million in the previous guidance.” Operating income was $35.130 million in 2026-Q3.
Gross margin stays near 40.5% in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Freshpet's published investment case. The stated target is >= 40.5%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 39% | Gross margin: 44.46% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 40.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202644.458533 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For full year 2027, the Company expects: • Net sales well in excess of the category growth rate, unchanged; • Adjusted Gross Margin of at least 49%, unchanged; and • Adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 20% to 22%, unchanged.” “For full year 2027, the Company now expects: • Net sales well in excess of the category growth rate, unchanged; • Adjusted Gross Margin of at least 49%, compared to at least 48% previously; and • Adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 20% to 22%, unchanged.” Gross profit was $141.307 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Leadership transitions do not disrupt strategy | A supporting condition in Freshpet's published investment case. The stated target is Stable leadership with smooth transitions. | Intact | Leadership changes cause strategic disruption or execution failure | Qualitative: Smooth transition executed (Morris retired, Baty promoted); 2026 sales guidance raised to 12-13% Co-founder Scott Morris retired with Nicola Baty promoted to President. Company raised 2026 sales guidance to 12-13% and maintained 49% margin target. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “As we continue to focus on transforming the health and vitality of pets, we are intentionally building out a leadership team that can support that mission and fuel our next phase of growth.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Net income improves to at least $48.5 million in 2026-Q1 | Net income rose from a loss to $48.5M in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Net income falls below $30 million in 2026-Q1 | Net income: $29.712M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $48.5 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202629,712,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net sales reach at least $297.6 million in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Freshpet's published investment case. The stated target is >= $297.6 million. | Intact | Net sales fall below $285 million in 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $317.84M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $297.6 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026317,840,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Outlook For full year 2026, the Company is updating its guidance and now expects the following: • Net sales growth in the range of 12% to 13%, compared to growth of 10% to 12% in the previous guidance; • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $215 million to $220 million, compared to $210 million to $220 million in the previous guidance; and • Positive Free Cash Flow with capital expenditures between $125 to $150 million, compared to ~$150 million in the previous guidance.” “1 "We are encouraged by our strong start to 2026, delivering first quarter sales growth in excess of our 2026 guidance and reinforcing our confidence in Freshpet's long-term growth opportunity.” Revenue was $317.840 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.84 → $1.83 · observed estimates
$1.32B → $1.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.84 | $1,319,004,719 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.79 | $1,318,115,680 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.79 | $1,318,115,680 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.83 | $1,317,936,960 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.83 | $1,317,936,960 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.83 | $1,317,936,960 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.79 | $1,318,266,210 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.79 | $1,318,266,210 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.84 | $1,318,151,710 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.79 | $1,318,266,210 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.79 | $1,318,266,210 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.79 | $1,318,266,210 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.79 | $1,318,266,210 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.79 | $1,318,266,210 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.81 | $1,326,622,934 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.82 | $1,325,705,000 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.82 | $1,325,705,000 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.82 | $1,325,705,000 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.81 | $1,326,622,934 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.96 | $1,327,782,110 | 6 / 18 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.81 | $1,326,622,934 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.81 | $1,326,622,934 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.81 | $1,326,622,934 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.81 | $1,326,622,934 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.81 | $1,326,622,934 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.81 | $1,326,622,934 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.81 | $1,326,622,934 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.86 | $1,327,638,859 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.86 | $1,327,638,859 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.86 | $1,327,638,859 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.86 | $1,327,638,859 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.86 | $1,327,638,859 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.86 | $1,328,594,443 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.86 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.86 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.86 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.86 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.86 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.86 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.77 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.77 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.77 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.77 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.77 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.77 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.77 | $1,329,310,756 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.77 | $1,328,733,653 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.77 | $1,328,733,653 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.77 | $1,328,733,653 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.77 | $1,328,733,653 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.77 | $1,328,733,653 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.77 | $1,328,733,653 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.77 | $1,328,733,653 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.77 | $1,328,733,653 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.77 | $1,328,733,653 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.77 | $1,328,733,653 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.77 | $1,328,733,653 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.78 | $1,329,100,659 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.83 | $1,329,100,677 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.83 | $1,329,100,677 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.83 | $1,329,712,442 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.83 | $1,329,712,442 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.83 | $1,329,712,442 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.83 | $1,329,712,442 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.83 | $1,329,712,442 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.83 | $1,329,712,442 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.82 | $1,329,947,736 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.82 | $1,329,947,736 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.82 | $1,329,947,736 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.82 | $1,329,947,736 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.82 | $1,329,947,736 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.82 | $1,329,947,736 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.83 | $1,331,248,795 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.83 | $1,331,248,795 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.83 | $1,331,248,795 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.83 | $1,331,719,383 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.83 | $1,331,719,383 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.83 | $1,331,719,383 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.83 | $1,331,719,383 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.83 | $1,331,719,383 | 7 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.