Freshpet (FRPT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$64.82-9.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FRPT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 91.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 80.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FRPT — COO transition
Dated 2026-06-24
President — Scott Morris: Co-Founder and President Scott Morris is retiring with a named successor.
Why it matters: Freshpet kept its positive cash flow goal while funding capacity growth. Cash flow shows whether that spending plan is manageable.
Supportive ifFreshpet reports positive free cash flow for 2026 and capital spending near $150 million.
Worry ifFreshpet reports negative free cash flow for 2026, or capital spending is well above $150 million.
Why it matters: Baty was promoted to President while keeping her COO role. The next results can show whether key plans stay on track through the change.
Watch forThe November 4 results keep 2026 sales, EBITDA, and cash flow goals unchanged or raise them.
Also watch forThe November 4 results cut the sales, EBITDA, or positive cash flow outlook.
Why it matters: Freshpet raised its 2026 sales growth range to 10%–12%. Q3 sales growth tests whether that pace holds.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales rise at least 10% year over year, with volume growth still positive.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 10% year over year, or sales decline.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $484 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,457 loss on $10,000 · 44.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.