Freshpet (FRPT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$70.24+0.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FRPT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 90.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 81.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FRPT — COO transition
Dated 2026-06-24
President — Scott Morris: Co-Founder and President Scott Morris is retiring with a named successor.
Why it matters: Negative Free Cash Flow may show money problems and affect future growth plans.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow reported as negative for Q3.
Less concerning ifFree Cash Flow reported as positive for Q3.
Why it matters: Doing well with new chillers can improve product quality. This can help growth.
Watch forManagement says the new chillers are working well. They are doing what was expected.
Also watch forManagement reports issues or delays with new chillers.
Why it matters: A sharp rise in SG&A could impact profitability and cash flow.
Worry ifSG&A expenses increase above 40% of net sales.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses remain below 40% of net sales.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may show rising costs or pricing issues. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 40% in Q2.
Less concerning ifGross margin remains at or above 40% in Q2.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $506 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,457 loss on $10,000 · 44.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show good cost control and pricing power. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin for Q2 2026 exceeds 41%.
Worry ifGross margin for Q2 2026 falls below 40%.
Why it matters: Improving sector trends could benefit Freshpet's growth outlook.
Watch forConsumer Staples sector growth picks up above 6% year over year.
Also watch forGrowth in the Consumer Staples sector is below 4% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Free Cash Flow below $20 million may show problems with cash generation and managing funds.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow reported below $20 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifFree Cash Flow reported at or above $20 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority. Strong growth would show Freshpet is on track.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Falling below this target could mean problems with operations or higher costs.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $205 million for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA exceeds $215 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Positive net income shows the company is making money. It also shows good cost control.
Supportive ifNet income reported as positive for Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income reported as negative for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% growth would signal a slowdown in Freshpet's revenue momentum.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A margin below 49% would hurt Freshpet's long-term profit goals.
Worry ifAdjusted Gross Margin reported below 49% for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted Gross Margin reported at or above 49% for Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in net income would worry people about Freshpet's profit path.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported lower than $19.5 million from Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income reported higher than $19.5 million from Q2.