Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Primis Financial Corp. (FRST)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.66-2.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.95 → 1.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FRST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute stock repurchase program of 750,000 shares | The company has a stock buyback program for 750,000 shares, showing confidence in its value. | Intact | no meaningful repurchases by end 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FRST is a smaller financial company with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or durable compounder today. The thesis is in a watch state: momentum has improved, but recent financial performance remains weak and earnings quality is neutral.
The valuation evidence describes FRST as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is nearly neutral. Pricing is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations already embedded in the valuation.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 40% estimated miss probability make the next report an important risk. For the multi-year thesis, Panacea deposits grew 56% year over year, but digital-platform deposits were essentially unchanged; net income improved in the third quarter year over year while year-to-date income declined. Management expects digital core conversion benefits to begin incrementally in the fourth quarter of 2026, but delivery on that commitment is not yet verified.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current 3.88% level could weigh on the financial sector. The favorable case depends partly on sector momentum continuing if HDB, IBN, and USB keep reporting strong earnings and higher guidance. Longer term, the thesis also depends on sustained profitability progress and verified benefits from the digital core conversion.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FRST’s digital-business growth offers a potential foundation, but weak recent results and mixed profitability delivery leave the long-term thesis unconfirmed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts expect earnings per share to grow to $1.58 in 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $1.3 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve robust profitability in 2026 | A primary condition in Primis Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is net income > $7M in FY26. | Improving | net income falls below $0 in FY26 | Net income: $8.672M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net income > $7M in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 23, 20268,672,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.89 → $1.70 · observed estimates
$0.15B → $0.20B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.89 | $149,735,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.89 | $149,735,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.89 | $149,735,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.89 | $208,936,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.89 | $208,936,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.89 | $208,936,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.94 | $211,651,533 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.94 | $148,423,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.94 | $211,651,533 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.94 | $149,084,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.94 | $149,084,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.94 | $149,084,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.94 | $149,084,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.94 | $149,084,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.94 | $149,084,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.94 | $149,084,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.94 | $149,084,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.94 | $149,084,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.94 | $149,084,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.94 | $212,236,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.95 | $212,763,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.95 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.95 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.92 | $212,762,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.80 | $208,732,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.80 | $208,732,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.80 | $208,732,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.80 | $208,732,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.80 | $208,732,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.80 | $208,732,900 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.70 | $202,544,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.70 | $202,544,667 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.