Primis Financial Corp. (FRST)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.38+1.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FRST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FRST — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026, Primis Financial Corp. (“Primis” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the period ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished and attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Updates on this project will show better operations and more profits.
Watch forManagement says the core bank change will add $6.1 million in earnings.
Also watch forManagement pushes back the core bank change date or lowers earnings expectations.
Why it matters: A net income over $9 million would show strong profit growth for 2026.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 is over $9 million. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 is below $7 million. This suggests profit problems.
Why it matters: The digital core change may add $6.1 million to earnings starting Q4 2026.
Supportive ifEarnings report shows an increase of at least $1.5 million attributed to the digital core.
Worry ifEarnings report shows no increase or a decrease in earnings related to the digital core.
Why it matters: The new board member's skills could change key decisions and improve operations.
Supportive ifManagement sees good changes in strategy or performance from the new board member.
Worry ifNo clear changes in strategy or performance after the new appointment.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $241 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,415 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below its median could signal challenges for Primis and the sector.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays above its median. This shows ongoing growth.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth falls below its median. This suggests possible challenges.
Why it matters: News about the stock buyback could show that management believes in the company's worth.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about buying back 750,000 shares.
Worry ifNo updates or a cancellation of the stock repurchase program.
Why it matters: A drop in net income would show ongoing money-making problems for Primis.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $7.3 million, the amount reported in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income exceeds $9.4 million, the amount reported in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in noninterest income would show better money sources and profits.
Supportive ifQ3 noninterest income is over $22 million, more than Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 noninterest income is below $14 million, less than Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Continued growth in mortgage-related income is crucial for overall revenue health. It shows resilience in a tough market.
Supportive ifMortgage income for Q3 2026 is more than $11 million.
Worry ifMortgage income for Q3 2026 is less than $7 million.
Why it matters: Successful conversion could increase profits. It can do this by boosting efficiency and revenue.
Supportive ifThey will announce a successful digital core by Q4 2026.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the digital core conversion.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows financial strength and care for shareholders. It can help investor mood.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.10 per share as planned.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend.
Why it matters: Her experience may help the company grow and perform better.
Supportive ifNew positive plans or partnerships came out after her appointment.
Worry ifNo clear changes or bad news about company plans after her appointment.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector's performance.
Worry ifPrimis reports revenue growth below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifPrimis maintains or exceeds revenue growth above the median.
Why it matters: A drop below 15% would signal a slowdown in the sector's growth phase. This could impact investor confidence in Primis Financial.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Steady dividends show financial strength and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifQ3 dividend declared at $0.10 per share, consistent with previous quarters.
Worry ifIf the Q3 dividend is cut or not announced, it may mean financial trouble.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends will show if the company maintains its growth phase.
Worry ifRevenue growth stays above the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth drops below the median of 15% year over year.