Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Five Star Bancorp (FSBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$43.75-3.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.72 → 3.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FSBC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings per share (EPS) growth | Five Star Bancorp grows earnings steadily with EPS rising from $0.62 to $0.87 in one year. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.90 for FY25 or below $0.87 for 2026-Q1 | Diluted EPS: $0.92 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.90 EPS for FY25 and >= $2.90 EPS for FY25-Q4. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 5, 20260.92 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented regional financial business, with recent performance strong but earnings quality rated fragile and management execution described as volatile. The long-term thesis is intact, though the evidence points to mixed execution rather than a settled record.
Valuation is described as carrying a durable premium versus peers, with a small expectations gap and medium model confidence. The priced-in assessment calls that premium justified and says fragility is low, so the market does not appear to be pricing in the full combination of weak execution and turbulence.
Near term, recent results are strong: third-quarter net income rose from the prior quarter, loans grew, and an earnings beat was reported. Expansion activity is underway, but expense discipline is mixed, capital proceeds have not yet been tied to specific growth deployment, and a litigation filing and CFO transition add uncertainty.
The multi-year view hinges on whether expansion can continue alongside tighter recurring expense control and clear use of the raised capital. Near-term risks include a guidance cut and rate cuts, while continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, FSBC’s thesis rests on converting strong recent performance and expansion into durable results without letting costs or execution concerns weaken earnings quality. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Leadership changes reinforce stable management and strategy. |
| Intact |
| Significant leadership disruption or loss of key executives |
No key executive departures; 1 director resignation (low materiality) CFO expanded role; director resigned without disagreement; no C-suite departures reported. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth | Operating income rose from $18.4M to $25.0M, showing strong profit growth. | Intact | Operating income falls below $25.0 million in 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $29.529M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $25.0 million operating income for 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 27, 202629,529,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth | A primary condition in Five Star Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $67.3 million revenue for 2026-Q1. | Intact | Revenue falls below $67.3 million in 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $79.174M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $67.3 million revenue for 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 5, 202679,174,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.94 → $3.73 · observed estimates
$0.22B → $0.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.94 | $220,542,670 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.80 | $227,454,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.80 | $227,454,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.80 | $227,454,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.80 | $227,454,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.73 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.75 | $229,254,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.71 | $227,885,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.71 | $227,885,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.71 | $227,885,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.71 | $227,885,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.71 | $227,885,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.71 | $227,885,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.71 | $227,885,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.71 | $227,885,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.71 | $227,885,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.72 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.72 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.72 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.72 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.72 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.72 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.72 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.69 | $228,060,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.70 | $228,480,675 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.70 | $228,480,675 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.70 | $228,480,675 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.70 | $228,480,675 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.70 | $228,174,233 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.70 | $228,174,233 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.70 | $227,233,233 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.73 | $226,824,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.73 | $226,824,925 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.