Five Star Bancorp (FSBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.29+1.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSBC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -14.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FSBC — litigation filed
Dated 2026-10-19
hereof and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Special Note Concerning Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on…
Why it matters: Nonperforming loans fell to 0.28% in Q3 from 0.30% in Q2. A rise above that level would reverse the recent credit improvement.
Worry ifThe next reported share of loans held for investment that are nonperforming rises above 0.30%.
Less concerning ifThe ratio stays at or below 0.28%. The reported credit-loss provision does not rise due to weaker loan performance.
Why it matters: Non-wholesale deposits rose 1.65% in Q3, while loans rose 4.08%. A smaller gap would ease pressure to use wholesale funding.
Worry ifIn the next quarter, loans grow by more than 4% while non-wholesale deposits grow by 1.65% or less. Or wholesale deposits rise.
Less concerning ifNon-wholesale deposits grow at least as fast as loans. Wholesale deposits stay flat or fall.
Why it matters: Loans grew 4.08% in Q3, about 16% annualized. More growth would support the bank’s expansion plans.
Supportive ifNext quarter, loans held for investment rise more than 4% from the prior quarter. Non-wholesale deposits also grow.
Worry ifLoans held for investment grow 0% or less. Or loan growth is more than 4 percentage points above non-wholesale deposit growth.
Why it matters: The margin rose to 3.69% in Q3 as loan yields rose and funding costs fell. A drop would weaken this source of earnings growth.
Worry ifThe next reported net interest margin falls below 3.69%. Higher deposit costs or lower asset yields are cited as causes.
Less concerning ifThe next reported net interest margin stays at or above 3.69%, with loan growth or lower funding costs supporting it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $201 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,475 loss on $10,000 · 14.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.