Five Star Bancorp (FSBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.96+1.19%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSBC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FSBC — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-23
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On July 22, 2026, Five Star Bancorp (the “Company”), a holding company that operates through its wholly owned banking subsidiary, Five Star Bank (the “Bank”), entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc., as representative of the several underwriters named in Schedule I thereto (collectively, the “Underwriters”), to issue and sell 2,725,000 shares of the Company’s common stock, no par value…
Why it matters: A drop below the median would signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector growth could impact Five Star Bancorp's performance. It may signal broader economic issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is under 15%. This shows a slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 15%, showing continued strength.
Why it matters: This report will show if earnings per share continue to grow, which is a key management priority.
Supportive ifEarnings per share reported for Q3 2026 exceeds $0.91, continuing the growth trend.
Worry ifEarnings per share reported for Q3 2026 falls below $0.87, breaking the growth trend.
Why it matters: The court case outcome could affect financial health and how investors feel.
Worry ifGood news or settlements in the court case can lower financial risk.
Less concerning ifBad news in the court case can raise financial costs.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $211 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,307 loss on $10,000 · 13.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A lower net interest margin can hurt profits. It shows how well the company handles interest.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 3.60% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays the same or goes above 3.70% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Loan growth helps increase net interest income and overall profits.
Supportive ifTotal loans held for investment increase by more than $306 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal loans held for investment increase by less than $306 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New branches could drive revenue growth and support the company's long-term strategy. This could attract more customers.
Supportive ifNew branches are opening in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Worry ifNo announcements of new branches in the Bay Area over the next few months.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio means better control of costs. It shows better operations.
Supportive ifThe efficiency ratio improves to below 40% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe efficiency ratio remains above 40% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The payment of the cash dividend shows the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders. It also reflects financial health.
Supportive ifThe company will pay a cash dividend of $0.25 per share on August 10, 2026.
Worry ifThe company fails to pay the declared dividend on August 10, 2026.
Why it matters: Continued net income growth signals strong performance and supports EPS growth.
Supportive ifNet income grows more than 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifNet income growth is less than or equal to 5% compared to the previous quarter.