Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
FS Bancorp, Inc. (FSBW)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$44.47+0.95%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.67 → 4.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FSBW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain regular quarterly cash dividend of at least $0.29 per share | It pays steady dividends of about $0.29 per share quarterly. | Intact | dividend cut below $0.29 per share | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-cap bank with a value-oriented profile, rather than a clear durable compounder or turnaround. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent performance remains below its industry cohort, though momentum improved and the thesis has not freshly broken.
FSBW is assessed as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is modest. Pricing is marked as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to extreme expectations or a fragile valuation setup.
Near term, the October 21 earnings miss and a run of consecutive misses make execution the key concern, despite the low miss-risk tier. Net income edged higher from the first to the second quarter, and management declared the same quarterly dividend in both; it also reported share repurchases in the second quarter. The Pacific West acquisition was completed, but post-close contribution and integration progress are not yet shown, and the CEO transition adds uncertainty.
The multi-year view depends on whether management integrates Pacific West and improves execution without cutting guidance on the next call. Near-term sector conditions also matter: falling rates could weigh on financial stocks, while continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, FSBW offers a cheap-versus-peers setup, but the thesis remains on watch until integration and operating execution are clearer. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts expect earnings per share to rise from $4.51 in 2026 to $5.13 in 2027. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $4.51 in FY26 or fails to grow in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth driven by Pacific West Bancorp acquisition | FS Bancorp grows by integrating Pacific West Bancorp, expanding its market. | Broken | revenue growth falls below 0% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation discount relative to peer median P/E | A supporting condition in FS Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is P/E ratio <= 11.98 (peer median). | Intact | P/E ratio rises above peer median of 11.98 | P/E (TTM): 12.02x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202612.0189 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.06 → $4.47 · observed estimates
$0.17B → $0.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.06 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.06 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.06 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.06 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.06 | $173,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.75 | $171,100,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.88 | $173,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.75 | $171,100,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.75 | $171,100,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.75 | $171,100,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.75 | $171,100,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.75 | $171,100,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.75 | $171,100,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.67 | $172,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.57 | $174,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.57 | $174,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.57 | $174,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.57 | $174,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.57 | $174,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.57 | $174,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.47 | $175,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.47 | $175,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.47 | $175,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.47 | $175,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.47 | $175,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.47 | $175,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.47 | $175,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.47 | $175,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.