FS Bancorp, Inc. (FSBW)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$44.47+0.95%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSBW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FSBW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 21, 2026, FS Bancorp, Inc. (the Company), the parent corporation of 1st Security Bank of Washington, issued its earnings release for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The bank finished joining its systems on October 5. Growth beyond the acquired balances would show the Portland-area deal is bringing in business.
Supportive ifA later report shows deposits above $2.87 billion and loans above $3.01 billion. These figures exclude any new deals.
Worry ifA later report shows deposits at or below $2.87 billion or loans at or below $3.01 billion.
Why it matters: Q3 net income fell from $7.9 million in Q2 and $9.2 million a year ago. A rebound would ease concern about the earnings drop.
Supportive ifQ4 net income rises above $4.9 million, with diluted earnings per share above $0.63.
Worry ifQ4 net income stays at or below $4.9 million, or diluted earnings per share stays at or below $0.63.
Why it matters: Home Lending lost $806,000 in Q3, after earning $1.1 million in Q2. Its return to profit would lift results.
Supportive ifHome Lending reports net income above $0 in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifHome Lending reports another quarterly net loss.
Why it matters: The board authorized up to $5 million in repurchases through August 24, 2027. Purchases would show the company is using the plan.
Supportive ifA filing or earnings release reports new share purchases under the plan before August 24, 2027.
Worry ifThe plan ends on August 24, 2027, with no further reported purchases after the 44,664 shares bought in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$72 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $234 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,501 loss on $10,000 · 15.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: FS Bancorp declared its 55th straight quarterly dividend at $0.29 per share. Keeping that amount would continue its stated return of cash to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe next dividend announcement declares at least $0.29 per share.
Worry ifThe next dividend announcement sets the payment below $0.29 per share, or says there is no dividend.