FS Bancorp, Inc. (FSBW)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.88+1.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSBW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FSBW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 21, 2026, FS Bancorp, Inc. (the Company), the parent corporation of 1st Security Bank of Washington, issued its earnings release for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing and market trends.
Watch forEarnings are over $8 million, showing strong financial results.
Also watch forEarnings fall below $7 million. This may show financial problems.
Why it matters: The dividend shows a promise to return money to shareholders. It shows financial strength.
Supportive ifDividend is paid as scheduled on August 21, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is late or canceled.
Why it matters: The $5 million buyback could signal management's confidence and support the stock price.
Supportive ifThe stock price increases by more than 5% following the announcement of the buyback.
Worry ifThe stock price declines by more than 5% despite the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: If they integrate well, they could earn more and grow in Portland.
Supportive ifManagement sees a clear rise in loans or market share in Portland.
Worry ifIntegration issues lead to a decline in loan growth or market share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $249 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,501 loss on $10,000 · 15.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop in consumer loans may show weak demand and risk issues.
Worry ifConsumer loans decrease more than 5.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifConsumer loans stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below its median, it signals a potential slowdown in the sector. This could affect FS Bancorp's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company plans to give money back to shareholders.
Watch forThe dividend is paid on time. This shows stable cash flow and good financial health.
Also watch forThe dividend payment is late or canceled. This may show cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition could boost growth and expand market presence for FS Bancorp.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will confirm the deal is done.
Worry ifA delay or cancellation of the deal announcement.
Why it matters: A big drop in deposits may show problems with keeping customers and funding.
Worry ifTotal deposits decrease more than 7.2% from the previous quarter.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits drop less than 7.2% or stay the same. This suggests better customer retention.
Why it matters: Stable or growing deposits show customer trust and financial health. It affects liquidity.
Supportive ifTotal deposits are stable or up from $2.45 billion.
Worry ifTotal deposits drop below $2.45 billion.
Why it matters: Successful integration is key for growth and stability after the acquisition. Investors will look for signs of progress.
Supportive ifManagement says integration is going well. They expect better financial results in earnings.
Worry ifThere are reports of delays in integration. This could hurt financial performance.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show management believes in the company's value. They can help share prices.
Supportive ifThe company shares news of its first buybacks under the $5 million program.
Worry ifNo share repurchases are made within the first quarter of the program.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can sustain its growth after the acquisition.
Watch forQ3 earnings report shows net income growth above $8 million.
Also watch forQ3 earnings report shows net income below $7 million.
Why it matters: Changes to the dividend can show management's faith in financial health and spending.
Watch forManagement says the cash dividend will go up this quarter.
Also watch forManagement cuts or stops the quarterly cash dividend.