Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Fastly, Inc. (FSLY)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.38-26.90%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.63 → 0.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FSLY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating loss narrows toward -$23.9M in Q1 2026 | Profit losses are shrinking, with operating income improving from -$46.7M to -$23.9M. | Under Pressure | Operating loss worsens beyond -$46M | Operating income: $-11.272M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= -$23.9M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026-11,272,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue and operating results have improved, while overall signals have shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
FSLY carries a durable premium to peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear somewhat ahead of the evidence. The model rates the setup as justified with low fragility, but valuation confidence is only medium.
Near-term results show strong year-over-year revenue growth, improving non-GAAP operating income, and wider gross margins. The company remains loss-making on the broader earnings-quality measure, and the latest financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort. A recent guidance increase is encouraging, but reversing it would damage management credibility.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining revenue growth and operating improvement while making progress toward positive earnings per share. A guidance cut after the recent increase is the main company-specific risk. Federal Reserve rate cuts or stabilization among large technology peers could improve the sector backdrop, but those factors do not resolve FSLY’s execution risks.
Over a 1-to-3-year horizon, FSLY has a credible improvement story, but its premium valuation and weaker performance versus peers leave the thesis dependent on continued execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Non-GAAP income from operations 1 was $31.2 million, or 16.4% of revenue, compared to $11.6 million, or 7.3% of revenue in the third quarter of 2025.” “• GAAP gross margin of 63.3%, compared to 58.4% in the third quarter of 2025.”
EPS reaches positive territory near $0.30 in FY26 | The company expects positive earnings per share near $0.30 in 2026. | Under Pressure | EPS remains negative or below $0.03 | Diluted EPS: $-0.07 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-0.07 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Non-GAAP net income per diluted share 1 of $0.17, compared to $0.07 in the third quarter of 2025.” “Conference Call Information Fastly will host an investor conference call to discuss its results at 1:30 p.m.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches about $717.5M in FY26 | A primary condition in Fastly, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$717.5M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $610M in FY26 | Revenue: $190.193M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$717.5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026190,193,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99.1 Fastly Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Record third quarter revenue of $190.2 million grew 20% year-over-year Third quarter gross margin of 63.3% and non-GAAP gross margin of 65.8% match record levels LTM NRR of 119% reaches highest level since 2022 SAN FRANCISCO, November 4, 2026, Fastly, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLY), a leader in global edge cloud platforms, today announced financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2026.” “3 • Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) 4 were $334 million, up 24% from $268 million in the third quarter of 2025.” Revenue was $190.193 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.40 → $0.64 · observed estimates
$0.80B → $0.85B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.40 | $800,343,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.40 | $800,343,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.40 | $800,334,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.40 | $800,343,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.40 | $800,343,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.40 | $800,334,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.40 | $800,343,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.40 | $800,343,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.40 | $800,334,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.40 | $800,334,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.40 | $800,343,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.40 | $800,343,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.40 | $800,343,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.40 | $800,343,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.57 | $826,761,370 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.53 | $822,728,870 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.53 | $822,728,870 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.53 | $822,728,870 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.57 | $826,770,540 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.57 | $826,761,370 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.58 | $829,278,040 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.57 | $826,761,370 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.57 | $826,761,370 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.57 | $826,761,370 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.57 | $826,761,370 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.57 | $826,761,370 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.57 | $826,761,370 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.58 | $829,269,703 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.58 | $829,269,703 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.58 | $829,269,703 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.58 | $829,269,703 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.58 | $829,269,703 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.58 | $829,269,703 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.58 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.59 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.59 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.59 | $829,267,203 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.61 | $837,518,037 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.61 | $837,518,037 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.63 | $842,228,718 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.63 | $842,228,718 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.63 | $842,228,718 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.63 | $842,228,718 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.63 | $842,228,718 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.63 | $846,179,551 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.63 | $846,179,551 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.63 | $846,179,559 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.63 | $846,179,559 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.63 | $846,179,559 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.63 | $846,179,559 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.63 | $846,179,559 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.63 | $846,179,559 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.63 | $846,179,559 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.63 | $846,179,559 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.63 | $846,179,559 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.64 | $850,712,893 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.64 | $850,712,893 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.64 | $850,712,893 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.64 | $850,712,893 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.64 | $850,712,893 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.64 | $850,712,893 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.64 | $850,712,893 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.64 | $850,715,059 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.