Fastly, Inc. (FSLY)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.59-2.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FSLY — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-17
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 17, 2026, Fastly, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Fourth Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Fourth Amendment”) to its Credit Agreement dated as of February 16, 2021, among the Company, as borrower, the lenders from time to time party thereto, and Silicon Valley Bank, a division of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company (the “Agent”), as administrative agent, issuing lender, and swingline lender (as amended, restated, supplemented, or mod…
Why it matters: The CFO change could affect Fastly's financial direction. It may lead to new strategies for growth or cost management.
Watch forNew financial plans were announced that match growth goals.
Also watch forNo changes in financial plans or ongoing ups and downs in performance.
Why it matters: Exceeding $180M would show Fastly is on track for strong revenue growth. This supports management's priority to achieve revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was over $180M. This shows strong market demand and good execution.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was under $170M. This points to growth challenges.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin could signal rising costs or pricing pressures.
Worry ifGross margin reported at 63.3% or higher.
Less concerning ifGross margin reported below 63.3%.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost management. This is key for making more money.
Supportive ifOperating income reported at less than -$23M.
Worry ifOperating income was worse than -$23M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$371 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $735 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,160 loss on $10,000 · 51.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If sector growth speeds up, it could help Fastly. This shows the tech sector's health.
Watch forSector revenue growth was over 5%. This shows a strong recovery.
Also watch forSector revenue growth was under 3%. This suggests ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: New partnerships could enhance Fastly's market position and drive future revenue growth.
Supportive ifA big new partnership was announced in Q3.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows Fastly is handling costs well. This helps improve profits.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income was better than -$20M. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifQ2 operating income was worse than -$25M. This shows ongoing cost challenges.
Why it matters: Achieving positive EPS is a priority for Fastly. It signals financial health.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS turns positive for the first time.
Worry ifQ2 EPS remains negative.
Why it matters: A drop in guidance may show weaker demand or problems with execution.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance comes in below $184 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $190 million.
Why it matters: Lower operating income may show trouble with costs or growth.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating income was under $20 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating income was over $20 million for Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in net retention may show unhappy customers or more competition.
Worry ifNet retention rate falls below 113% in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet retention rate stays at or above 113% in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong growth in security revenue shows demand for Fastly's security products. A slowdown may mean market problems.
Supportive ifSecurity revenue growth is over 43% compared to last year.
Worry ifSecurity revenue growth is below 40% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Positive earnings per share would show better profits and success.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP net income per share reported above $0.11 in Q3.
Worry ifNon-GAAP net income per share reported below $0.11 in Q3.
Why it matters: A high net retention rate means customers are using more of Fastly's services.
Supportive ifNet retention rate reported above 110% for Q2.
Worry ifNet retention rate reported below 105% for Q2.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may mean less demand or more competition.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth was less than 20% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or above 20% year-over-year.