Fastly, Inc. (FSLY)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.04-0.14%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 20.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FSLY — President transition
Dated 2026-11-04
President, Go to Market — Scott R. Lovett: The filing announces a planned retirement of a senior executive with a structured transition period and consulting agreement, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: Fastly reported positive non-GAAP operating income in both Q1 and Q2. A result below its Q3 guide would break that progress.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP operating income is below $20 million. The guide was $20 million to $24 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP operating income is at least $20 million and within or above the $20 million to $24 million guide.
Why it matters: Net retention rose from 113% in Q1 to 117% in Q2. A drop would point to weaker growth from current customers.
Worry ifThe next reported LTM net retention rate is below 117%.
Less concerning ifThe next reported LTM net retention rate stays at or above 117%.
Why it matters: Fastly raised its full-year outlook after Q2 revenue grew 23%. Revenue below the Q3 guide would weaken that growth story.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $184 million, the low end of the $184 million to $190 million guide.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue reaches at least $184 million and stays within or above the $184 million to $190 million guide.
Why it matters: The top ten customers rose from 34% of revenue in Q1 to 37% in Q2. A further rise would mean more sales depend on a few customers.
Worry ifThe top ten customers account for more than 37% of Q3 revenue.
Less concerning ifThe top ten customers account for 37% or less of Q3 revenue.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$364 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $918 loss on $10,000 · 9.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,160 loss on $10,000 · 51.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Security revenue grew 43% year over year in Q2, faster than network services. Slower growth would weaken this product growth signal.
Worry ifQ3 security revenue growth is below 43% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 security revenue growth is at least 43% year over year.