Fortinet (FTNT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-07-08
$156.71-1.24%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $156.71. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $159 FTNT trades at 54× p/e, in line with its 47× p/e peer median — but our blended $110 fair value sits well below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $70–$155. Not investment advice.
$70.00 – $155.00 (median $107.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-06-29
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 258% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 15.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.24/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $107.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $88.65 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $91.19 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $150.09 | 48.0 | 3.13 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $63.36 | 20.7 | 2.95 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $88.94 | 27.1 | 3.28 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $150.09 | 48.0 | 3.13 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $46.39 | 4.8 | 9.57 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $36.01 | 11.5 | 3.13 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $154.77 | 49.4 | 3.13 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $150.28 | 48.0 | 3.13 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $207.40 | 48.0 | 4.33 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $118.81 | 27.1 | 4.38 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $189.86 | 48.0 | 3.96 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $65.16 | 4.8 | 13.44 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $45.56 | 11.5 | 3.96 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $195.79 | 49.4 | 3.96 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $257.30 | 48.0 | 5.37 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $144.11 | 27.1 | 5.31 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $227.95 | 48.0 | 4.75 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $78.22 | 4.8 | 16.14 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $54.70 | 11.5 | 4.75 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $235.06 | 49.4 | 4.75 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.