Fortinet (FTNT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$156.29-0.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS reaches about $3.13: FY26 EPS guidance $3.41-$3.47 vs ~$3.13 target.
Fortinet grows revenue about 14% a year to nearly $7.8 billion in 2026. Profit per share is on track to reach $3.13. The company keeps strong cash flow, with $1.08 billion in operating cash flow last quarter. Fortinet leads in cybersecurity with new products like FortiSOC.
Revenue growth could slow below 14% if demand weakens. Profit margins may shrink if costs rise. The recent guidance cut shows risks to earnings growth. Competition in cybersecurity is intense and could pressure results.
The price is about 44% above our fair value near $110. Analysts expect 14% revenue growth, which is roughly in line with management targets. The market is optimistic, but the recent guidance cut and pullback suggest risks to this view.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.68 in FY26
Breaks if: Operating cash flow falls below $900 million per quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth opportunity with a focus on consistent revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and strong operational cash flow.
The market currently prices FTNT at a premium compared to its peers, indicating high expectations for future performance. Valuation is considered expensive, but there is a low expectations gap, suggesting that the current price reflects justified confidence in the company's fundamentals.
Management is on track to meet its revenue and earnings targets for 2026, with strong financial performance in recent quarters. However, there is a moderate risk as industry peers have experienced misses, which could impact sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on financial targets. Additionally, broader market conditions, such as potential interest rate cuts and performance from sector leaders, will play a significant role in shaping FTNT's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this view. Demand for AI-driven security and SASE Firewall innovation also boosts the outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Sustain robust operating cash flow to support business growth and capital allocation priorities.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating cash flow rose from $620 million in 2025-Q4 to $1.04 billion in 2026-Q2, demonstrating strong cash generation supporting growth and capital needs. The trajectory is delivering sustained cash flow strength.
“Operating cash flow of $1.04 billion in second quarter 2026.”
“Record operating cash flow of $1.08 billion in first quarter 2026.”
“Cash flow from operations was $620 million in fourth quarter 2025.”
“Cash flow from operations was $655 million in third quarter 2025.”
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $7.4 billion in FY26
Overall, FTNT's fundamentals are strong, but investors should remain cautious of external factors that could influence performance. Not investment advice.