Fortinet (FTNT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$156.29-0.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FTNT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is important for capital allocation. A decline below $200M raises red flags.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $200M.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations reported at or above $200M.
Why it matters: Updates on AI can show Fortinet's edge and leadership in the market.
Watch forA new AI product or partnership announcement.
Also watch forNo new AI product announcements or partnerships in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it could impact Fortinet's performance and revenue targets.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the last quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: High billings growth shows strong customer demand and a good market position.
Supportive ifBillings growth reported above 30% year over year.
Worry ifBillings growth reported below 20% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $385 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,434 loss on $10,000 · 14.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important. It helps keep operations strong and supports growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported higher than $150M in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $150M in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher billings show strong sales and demand for Fortinet's solutions.
Supportive ifQ3 billings reported above $2.350 billion.
Worry ifQ3 billings reported below $2.250 billion.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal trouble in reaching the $7.79B revenue goal for 2026.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: High use of FortiOS 8.0 shows strong demand for new features. It helps the company compete better.
Supportive ifMany customers adopted FortiOS 8.0 within six months of its launch.
Worry ifFew people use the product. Customers are unhappy and complain.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows strong demand and supports growth targets for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $2.100 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $2.010 billion.
Why it matters: Strong EPS growth shows good cost management. This helps meet overall growth goals.
Supportive ifQ3 non-GAAP EPS reported at or above $0.87.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP EPS reported below $0.83.
Why it matters: High growth in product revenue shows strong demand. It highlights Fortinet's market position.
Supportive ifProduct revenue growth reported above 50% YoY.
Worry ifProduct revenue growth reported below 40% YoY.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps growth plans. It also shows how well the company runs.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow was over $1 billion.
Worry ifOperating cash flow was below $900 million.