Fortinet (FTNT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$129.39+1.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FTNT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Fortinet has posted high operating margins, and its Q4 range starts at 35.5%. A lower result would miss that floor.
Worry ifQ4 2026 non-GAAP operating margin is below 35.5%, the low end of Fortinet's range.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 non-GAAP operating margin is at or above 35.5%.
Why it matters: Fortinet raised its revenue outlook to 20% growth. The tech sector is still growing, but its recent trend is easing.
Watch forFull-year 2026 revenue grows at least 20% year over year, matching the latest raised outlook.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 revenue grows below 19% year over year, under the prior Q2 outlook.
Why it matters: Fortinet raised its billings outlook three times in 2026. A result above the new range would extend that strong demand trend.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 billings exceed $2.925 billion, the top of Fortinet's stated range.
Worry ifQ4 2026 billings fall below $2.775 billion, the bottom of Fortinet's stated range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $419 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,519 loss on $10,000 · 35.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.