Six Flags (FUN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.51+3.19%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth above 1% in next 12 months: rev -7.0% vs >1.0%.
Six Flags is cutting losses from $1.6B to $269M in 2026-Q1. New rides like the Texas coaster can boost visitors and sales. The company is hiring new leaders to fix problems. Cost cuts aim to improve profit and cash flow.
Losses remain large and profits are weak. Safety issues hurt the brand. Closing old parks shows financial trouble. Leadership changes may cause more uncertainty.
The price is about 14% below our fair value near $22. Analysts expect only 1% revenue growth. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median, reflecting cautious views.
Breaks if: operating income worse than -$312M after 2026-Q1
Maintain disciplined expense management and operational rigor to control costs while supporting commercial initiatives and guest experience improvements.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving financial performance and operational efficiency. The current thesis state reflects a medium confidence level amid recent challenges and management changes.
The market appears to have priced in some fragility, as evidenced by a low fragility tier. The valuation has increased recently, indicating that expectations may be somewhat elevated compared to peers.
Management has prioritized improving financial performance and operational efficiency, which has shown some positive results in recent quarters. However, the company has a near-term risk of missing expectations, as it has done in recent earnings reports.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for management to stabilize performance and the impact of broader economic conditions, such as inflation and sector performance. The upcoming earnings call will be crucial for guidance and market sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 17.5 points (from 47.8 to 65.3).
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company aims to improve financial performance. However, it missed earnings expectations recently. An extreme roller coaster closure raises safety concerns and may hurt attendance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management emphasized operational efficiency in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating expenses were tightly controlled with only a $1 million increase on a Same-Park Basis in 2026-Q2 and a 12% decrease in 2026-Q1 versus prior year. These cost discipline efforts support improved operating leverage and align with management's stated focus on operational rigor.
“Operating costs and expenses remained well controlled despite higher attendance...operating expenses increased by only $1 million on a Same-Park Basis.”
“Operating costs and expenses in the first quarter of 2026 decreased $50.4 million, or 12%, compared to the first quarter last year, reflecting an increased focus on delivering more cost efficiencies.”
“Operating expenses down $5 million from prior year due to reductions in seasonal labor costs and operating supplies, partially offset by higher property taxes and utility costs.”
Breaks if: revenue growth falls below 1% in next 12 months
Advance strategic priorities to strengthen business, increase attendance, revenues, and Adjusted EBITDA through focused park portfolio and commercial strategy.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Same-Park Basis net revenues grew 2.4% from $844M in 2025-Q2 to $864M in 2026-Q2, Adjusted EBITDA rose 7% from $233M to $249M, and attendance increased 4% to 13.1M visits. Management's focus on a more concentrated park portfolio and commercial strategy is delivering improved financial results and operational momentum.
“Our more focused operating portfolio generated higher attendance, net revenues and Adjusted EBITDA, demonstrating...performance improvement initiatives are delivering improved financial results.”
“Despite the seasonally low first quarter operating profile...these results demonstrate the resiliency of our operating model and the progress we are making executing against our strategic priorities.”
“While 2025 results fell short of our expectations, the work completed over the past year has strengthened the foundation of our enterprise.”
Breaks if: net loss exceeds -$270M in any quarter after 2026-Q1
Advance strategic priorities to strengthen business, increase attendance, revenues, and Adjusted EBITDA through focused park portfolio and commercial strategy.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Same-Park Basis net revenues grew 2.4% from $844M in 2025-Q2 to $864M in 2026-Q2, Adjusted EBITDA rose 7% from $233M to $249M, and attendance increased 4% to 13.1M visits. Management's focus on a more concentrated park portfolio and commercial strategy is delivering improved financial results and operational momentum.
“Our more focused operating portfolio generated higher attendance, net revenues and Adjusted EBITDA, demonstrating...performance improvement initiatives are delivering improved financial results.”
“Despite the seasonally low first quarter operating profile...these results demonstrate the resiliency of our operating model and the progress we are making executing against our strategic priorities.”
“While 2025 results fell short of our expectations, the work completed over the past year has strengthened the foundation of our enterprise.”
Breaks if: key executive departures continue past 2026-Q4
Appoint new executives including COO and CFO to enhance operational excellence and financial discipline.
Leadership transition was newly stated in 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q3 with appointments of Mark Pauls as COO and Ash Walia as CFO. These changes aim to strengthen operational and financial leadership. While no direct financial impact is yet measurable, management highlights these hires as key to advancing operational excellence and financial discipline.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FUN's performance will depend on its ability to execute on its management priorities and navigate external pressures. Not investment advice.