Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Six Flags (FUN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$9.24+16.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FUN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income better than -$312M in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Six Flags's published investment case. The stated target is > -312243000. | Under Pressure | operating income worse than -$312M after 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $-299.851M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: > -312243000. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 5, 2026-299,851,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a turnaround-style, higher-risk business case rather than a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is in a watch state: recent operating measures have improved, but earnings quality and recent financial performance remain weak.
The valuation evidence points to FUN being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain cautious. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; valuation has risen recently, but the evidence does not show that the weak operating picture is fully resolved.
Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated after recent misses and erratic surprises, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. Over the multi-year thesis, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and attendance improved year over year in the latest cited quarter, while operating costs were controlled. New operating and finance leaders may strengthen execution, but their financial impact is not yet measurable.
The central question is whether management can sustain better attendance, revenue growth, and cost discipline while improving the broader weak financial record. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FUN’s thesis depends on turning recent operating progress into steadier financial performance, with meaningful near-term earnings and leadership risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Revenue growth above 1% in next 12 months |
| A primary condition in Six Flags's published investment case. The stated target is >1% YoY. |
| Broken |
| revenue growth falls below 1% in next 12 months |
Revenue growth: -10.98% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >1% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 5, 2026-10.978916 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce net loss to less than $270M in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Six Flags's published investment case. The stated target is <= -270000000. | Under Pressure | net loss exceeds -$270M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Net income: $-366.121M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: <= -270000000. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 5, 2026-366,121,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete leadership changes and stabilize team by end 2026 | A supporting condition in Six Flags's published investment case. The stated target is stable leadership team by 2026-Q4. | Under Pressure | key executive departures continue past 2026-Q4 | Qualitative: 2 exec departures (COO, CFO) in 2026 COO Tim Fisher departing; Ash Walia hired as CFO; Q3 results better than feared. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.44 → $-0.31 · observed estimates
$3.15B → $2.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.44 | $3,152,067,230 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.44 | $3,149,067,230 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.44 | $3,149,067,230 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.43 | $3,130,706,201 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.43 | $3,130,706,201 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.44 | $3,146,651,920 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.36 | $3,125,290,893 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.44 | $3,146,651,920 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.36 | $3,125,290,893 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.44 | $3,126,091,110 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.44 | $3,126,091,110 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.44 | $3,126,091,110 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.44 | $3,126,091,110 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.44 | $3,126,091,110 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.42 | $3,122,288,707 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.76 | $3,088,880,210 | 3 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.76 | $3,088,880,210 | 3 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.76 | $3,088,880,210 | 3 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.07 | $3,040,536,480 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.07 | $3,040,536,480 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.42 | $3,122,288,707 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.42 | $3,122,288,707 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.42 | $3,122,288,707 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.42 | $3,122,288,707 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.42 | $3,122,288,707 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.42 | $3,122,288,707 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.08 | $3,036,634,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.10 | $3,028,237,180 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.10 | $3,028,237,180 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.10 | $3,028,237,180 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.10 | $3,028,237,180 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.10 | $3,028,237,180 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.10 | $3,028,237,180 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.16 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.16 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.16 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.16 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.16 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.16 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.15 | $3,019,880,037 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.16 | $3,017,659,965 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.16 | $3,017,659,965 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.16 | $3,017,659,965 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.16 | $3,017,659,965 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.16 | $3,017,659,965 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.16 | $3,017,659,965 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.16 | $3,017,659,965 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.16 | $3,017,659,965 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.16 | $3,017,659,965 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.19 | $3,006,651,730 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.19 | $3,006,651,730 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.19 | $3,006,651,730 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.19 | $3,006,651,730 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.19 | $3,003,067,416 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.23 | $2,993,624,558 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.23 | $2,993,624,558 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.23 | $2,993,624,558 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.23 | $2,993,624,558 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.23 | $2,993,624,558 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.29 | $2,985,964,987 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.29 | $2,985,964,987 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.29 | $2,985,964,987 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.29 | $2,985,964,987 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.29 | $2,985,964,987 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.29 | $2,985,964,987 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.29 | $2,985,964,987 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.31 | $2,983,911,416 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.31 | $2,983,911,416 | 6 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.