Six Flags (FUN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.51+3.19%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FUN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FUN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Six Flags Entertainment Corporation issued a news release disclosing 2026 fiscal second-quarter results. A copy of the news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. This information shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise be subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by refer…
Why it matters: Guests are spending more money. This increases revenue and makes more money.
Supportive ifPer capita spending increases by more than 1% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Worry ifPer capita spending declines or grows less than 1% in Q3.
Why it matters: Better efficiency can help make more money. It can also improve financial results.
Supportive ifOperating costs go down or stay the same compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifOperating costs rise by more than 1% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: The appointment of Rehan Jaffer to the board may signal strategic shifts. This could affect investor confidence and company direction.
Supportive ifGood news or new plans from the board after the 2026 Annual Meeting on May 26.
Worry ifNo big changes or new plans after the board is appointed.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health and efficiency. This matters for investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 net loss is less than $202 million.
Worry ifQ3 net loss exceeds $202 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$256 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $698 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,202 loss on $10,000 · 52.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A strong COO can improve operations. This can lead to better guest satisfaction.
Supportive ifOperational metrics improve under the leadership of Mark Pauls, the new COO.
Worry ifThere is no big change in operations after the COO was appointed.
Why it matters: A smooth change to the new CFO can help manage finances better. This boosts investor trust.
Supportive ifCFO Ash Walia uses financial strategies well. He reports better financial numbers in Q3.
Worry ifThe CFO change may lead to money problems or reporting issues in Q3.
Why it matters: Amy Martin Ziegenfuss is the new CMO. She may increase guest engagement and revenue with new marketing.
Supportive ifIncreased season pass sales and higher guest spending reported in Q2 2026.
Worry ifDecline in season pass sales or lower guest spending in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Summer attendance is crucial for revenue. A strong season can signal recovery and growth potential.
Supportive ifAttendance grows more than 5% year-over-year during the summer.
Worry ifSummer attendance growth is under 2%. This shows weak interest from consumers.
Why it matters: Mark Pauls' experience may improve efficiency. This could help profits and guest satisfaction.
Supportive ifOperating costs drop a lot in Q3 2026. This shows better efficiency.
Worry ifOperating costs stay high or go up. This shows ongoing operational problems.
Why it matters: The new CFO, Ash Walia, may improve financial results after recent losses. Investors will look for signs of effective financial management.
Supportive ifNet loss gets much better in Q2 2026. This shows good financial strategies.
Worry ifNet loss stays the same or gets worse compared to Q1 2026. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: Better Adjusted EBITDA means the company is working better. It shows stronger financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is more than $250 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $240 million.
Why it matters: Mark Pauls' leadership may improve operations. This can help profits and guest satisfaction.
Supportive ifGuest satisfaction and cost management improve within 6 months of Pauls' start.
Worry ifOperations get worse or stay the same after the COO starts.
Why it matters: Steady or rising revenues show that management is doing well with finances.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenues grow on a Same-Park Basis by more than 2.4% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 net revenues decline on a Same-Park Basis by more than 0% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Better efficiency can help make more money. It can also make guests happier.
Supportive ifOperating income is getting better. It is nearing breakeven or profit.
Worry ifOperating income is still going down. It remains very negative.
Why it matters: A permanent CFO can help steady financial leadership. This can lead to better financial results.
Supportive ifThey announced a permanent CFO with a strong background in finance.
Worry ifThere is still interim leadership. A permanent CFO has not been in place for a long time.
Why it matters: The new CFO's impact on financial performance will show if the leadership changes are effective.
Watch forLook for better financial numbers. This includes a smaller net loss or higher Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2026.
Also watch forWorse financial numbers, like a bigger net loss or lower Adjusted EBITDA, in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More people attending shows means stronger demand. This helps Six Flags make more money.
Supportive ifQ3 attendance increases on a Same-Park Basis by more than 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 attendance declines or grows less than 4% on a Same-Park Basis.
Why it matters: More season pass sales show strong customer interest. This suggests future attendance will be good.
Supportive ifSeason pass sales grow by more than 7% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifSeason pass sales growth is less than 5% year over year in Q3.